Hail in Minnesota, September 12, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH SFC
REFLECTION LOW PUSHING QUICKLY INTO SW MANITOBA WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO NW NORTH DAKOTA. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW IN THE
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREV FORECAST TO INCREASE WINDS/GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND 995 MB AS SPEEDS
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY...REACHING NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY 00Z TUESDAY.

THE NORTHLAND CURRENTLY RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH 00Z RAOBS
REPORTING AN H85 TEMP OF 15 C AT KINL...AND ONLY 3 C 500 MILES TO
THE NW AT CYQT. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD
FRONT STRENGTHENS WITHING A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM THAT CHARGES THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM/GFS/ECM
ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H95 WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 30
KTS OUT OF THE SW BY 18Z...REMAINING IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE INTO
THE EVENING AS THE WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF MUCAPE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FROM THE H50 VORT...PV/ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND COUPLED JETS FOR
CONVECTION TODAY...THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM
WILL BE INHIBITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS. THE BEST FORCING
AND THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE MN ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR THE
LOW CENTER/TRIPLE POINT. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL LIKELY CONTAIN STRONG
WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL.

.EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE NWP MODELS TO DIG SEWD
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A REINFORCING ROUND OF
COOL AIR TO THE FCST AREA. WITH SUCH COLD AIR ALOFT AND A SECOND
SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA AND AFFECTING THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT....THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BASIN WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY THIS WEEKEND...GIVING
WAY TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE 60S
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO RETURN SRLY FLOW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011/

AVIATION.../06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A BIT
OF WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW TO 35 KTS IS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. THESE STRONGER
WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BE FELT NEAR THE SURFACE BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO 35 KTS. SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY IN THE ARROWHEAD
OF MN AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  45  63  37 /  30  10  20  10
INL  74  41  60  32 /  50  10  40  10
BRD  84  45  65  39 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  86  47  65  39 /  20  20  10  10
ASX  83  48  64  42 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.

&&

SHORT TERM...GRANING
EXTENDED/AVIATION....BERDES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
407 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-131030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
407 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BRINGING NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING MORNING
TEMPERATURES...AND AREAS OF FROST...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-131030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
407 AM CDT MON SEP 12 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PERSISTENT GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

GRANING

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH