Persistent below normal precipitation since May 2011, allowed severe drought conditions to develop across portions of southeast Minnesota, including Dodge County.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
Persistent below normal precipitation since May 2011, allowed severe drought conditions to develop across portions of southeast Minnesota, including Dodge County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 11, 5:20 AM CST, 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 620 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...TSRA CHANCE CENTERED ON WED. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CAN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH ITS WEAK SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH SOME WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE PRODUCING A BROKEN BAND OF -SHRA FROM WESTERN WI TO NORTHEAST MO. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR WITH PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF MN AND WEST 2/3 OF IA. EARLY MORNING TEMPS ONCE AGAIN QUITE MILD FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF OCT. NO MAJOR ERRORS NOTED WITH 11.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR AND REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT FOR SOME MINOR TIMING SHIFTS BY WED/THU. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 11.00Z SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF 09.00Z AND 10.00Z VERIFIED RATHER WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ECMWF/ GFS. MODELS CONVERGING TOWARD A TIGHTER COMPROMISE/CONSENSUS OF THEIR EARLIER RUNS TODAY/TONIGHT AS STRONG TROUGHING/ENERGY DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS WED THRU THU NIGHT...BUT TREND IS A BIT SLOWER/STRONGER AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID MS THEN OH VALLEY AND MORE ENERGY DROPS DOWN THE MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WED THRU THU NIGHT TO ECMWF. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MODELS ALL QUITE GOOD WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. PER WV IMAGERY ECMWF/GEM APPEARED BETTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...ESPECIALLY WITH WEAK FEATURES OVER EASTERN NEB...TX PAN-HANDLE AND WY. A BLEND OF MODELS APPEARED BEST WITH THE BAND OF -SHRA IN THE REGION. WITH MODELS CONVERGING TOWARD A COMMON SOLUTION LEAD BY THE ECMWF...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SHORTWAVES SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS WI/EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL TODAY/ TONIGHT. CONTINUED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCT -SHRA OVER ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA TODAY AND SOUTHEAST THIRD THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE COLUMN RATHER DRY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY/MIXED LAYER OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING. WEST SIDE OF THE FCST LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WHILE EAST SIDE IS MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH THE SCT -SHRA. WILL TRY TO DEPICT THIS IN THE GRIDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED SOME FINE-TUNING THRU THE DAY AS MESO-SCALE CLOUD/-SHRA TRENDS BECOME CLEARER. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE STRONG TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF/WITH THIS TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...WITH AN INCREASE OF 925-700MB THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SMALL -SHRA CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT REASONABLE FOR NOW. GREATER SATURATION IN THE SFC-800MB LAYER SPREADS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED/WED NIGHT. THIS AS HGTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO FALL AHEAD OF THE DIGGING/NEGATIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH. BROAD LIFT/ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WED THEN TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. WITH THE CONSISTENT MODEL SIGNAL AND TIGHTER MODEL CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP OVER THE AREA... ESPECIALLY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...RAISED RAIN CHANCES THESE PERIODS INTO THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATED UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE OVER THE AREA WED AFTERNOON... WITH LESSER CAPE LINGERING INTO EARLY WED EVENING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA WED AND ADDED AN ISOLATED MENTION TO MUCH OF THE AREA FOR EARLY WED EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OVER THE AREA THU/THU NIGHT...ONLY GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND GIVING UP IMPACT ON THE FCST AREA. DEEPEST MOISTURE/STRONGEST OF CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA THU. RAISED THU RAIN CHANCES A BIT OVER THE NORTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA...WHILE LEAVING THE SOUTHWEST END DRY. FORCING/LIFT/DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSLATE EAST OF THE FCST AREA THU NIGHT...WITH ONLY A LINGERING SMALL -SHRA CHANCE NORTHEAST OF I-94. WITH THE FCST AREA EXPECTED TO BE SPLIT BETWEEN SUN AND CLOUDS TODAY/THU AND INCREASING CLOUDS/RAIN ON WED TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH ANOTHER WARM START TODAY... GENERALLY FAVORED WARMER OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WITH CLOUDS/RAIN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WED...LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF RAIN MOVES IN MORE QUICKLY WED...HIGHS IN FCST GRIDS FOR WED MAY STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO WARM. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THU...TRENDED THU HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE LOWS SIMILAR THRU THE PERIOD AND LOOK BETTER TRENDED THAN THE GUIDANCE HIGHS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD/RAIN TRENDS. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011 11.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FRI/SAT WITH THE PATTERN PROGRESSIVE AND HGTS RISING/RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH- CENTRAL CONUS. FRI/SAT TRENDING TO BE DRY WITH TEMPS MORE SEASONABLE FOR MID OCT AS CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. MODELS TRENDING TOWARD NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS BY LATE SAT...WHICH IS A SHIFT FROM A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN PRESENTED IN THE 09.00Z RUNS AND 10.00Z ECMWF RUN. BY SUN GFS/ECMWF SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON PROGRESSIVENESS OF STRONGER WAVES IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW...WHICH IS NOT UNEXPECTED IN ZONAL FLOW AT THIS TIME RANGE. RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY SUN ON THE LOW SIDE AS WELL THUS FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SUN/MON QUITE LOW. GIVEN ALL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES/TRENDS IN THE LONG-TERM SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR NOW...WITH SMALL -SHRA CHANCES SUN/MON AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION... 620 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011 SCATTERED -SHRA CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IA/WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING...HELPED ALONG BY A BRANCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. CEILINGS GENERALLY VFR WITH THESE -SHRA...AND ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN MINOR. COULD IMPACT KLSE FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST BY LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE AREAS OF FG AND STRATUS HAVE DEVELOP OVER IA...IN RESPONSE TO CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND PREVIOUS RAINS. KRST IS ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA OF CLOUDS WHICH HAS PREVENTED VSBYS THERE FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH. AS LONG AS THE CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THROUGH DAYBREAK...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH SOME VFR CEILINGS AT KLSE BUT MOSTLY SCT AT KRST. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT VALLEY FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AT KLSE LATE TONIGHT. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AND SKIES SHOULD BE SCT FOR THE MOST PART. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 10 KTS OF WIND BY 300 FT OVERNIGHT THOUGH...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH STIRRING TO PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG. NOT SOLD THAT THERE WON/T BE A T/TD SPREAD BY 12Z WED EITHER. INTERESTING SCENARIO THOUGH IF THE CONDITIONS RESULTING IN THE DENSE FG CURRENTLY OVER IA TRANSLATES OVER WI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME SUGGESTIONS THAT IT WILL. SITUATION BEARS CLOSE MONITORING...AND WILL ADD BCFG TO INDICATE THE FG POTENTIAL FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND LOWERING WED MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT. -RA WILL ALSO RETURN. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY...PERHAPS MORE SO WED NIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 331 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && SHORT TERM... RRS LONG TERM.... RRS AVIATION..... RIECK
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 500 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061-121000- ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE- FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE- MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON- WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA- 500 AM CDT TUE OCT 11 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED. RIECK
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions developed across Dodge County because of a persistent lack of precipitation since May 2011. Local officials were not issuing any burning permits or allowing any campfires.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, October 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 350100.