A severe thunderstorm produced large hail near Germfask on the afternoon of the 12th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A severe thunderstorm produced large hail near Germfask on the afternoon of the 12th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 3:02 PM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 402 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA HAS BEEN GENERATING EXTENDED CLOUD COVER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALL MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. LIFT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALSO FROM THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. MODERATE QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND PWATS AROUND 115 PERCENT WILL ALLOW FOR THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...THE NAM HAS THE BEST FORCING/850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE/DPVA WITH THE 500MB TROUGH/ AND MOISTURE /PWATS FROM 130 TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL/ACROSS WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN HOWEVER...WITH PWATS AROUND 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN MOST AREAS. AS A RESULT...KEPT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FURTHEST SOUTH. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND RAINFALL OVER THE LAKE...ADDED PATCHY TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. WITH CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. FOR SATURDAY...A 300MB JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS WAA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. NAM SHOWS WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...HOWEVER THE MAIN FORCING IS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER. REGARDLESS...MODERATE 850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL REGIONS...THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. AS FOR INSTABILITY...SURFACE CAPE IS AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER IN THE EASTERN REGIONS IT IS MORE IN THE 800-1000 J/KG RANGE. HIGHER VALUES OF THETA E ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN CWA AS WELL...THUS HAVE KEPT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MIXING... THUS HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S/925MB TEMPS AROUND 15-17C/. ALSO...COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. .LONG TERM 00Z SUN ONWARD... UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z SUN. THE NAM SHOWS THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DIGGING SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN FOR MON INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PCPN WILL BE PULLING OUT FOR THIS FORECAST AND DRY AND QUIET WEATHER SETS IN FOR SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT TO THE AREA AND COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS UP AND WILL ALLOW COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR. LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM GOING FORECAST AND WENT CLOSE TO ADJMOS GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED REASONABLE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 12C TO 14C WHICH MIXING THAT DOWN TO THE SFC GIVES ME HIGHS AROUND 80 AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AS WELL...BUT NOT BY MUCH. IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z TUE WITH TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN TOO. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 00Z WED. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THU AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRI. WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUE OVER THE WEST AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES CLOSER AND THEN GO CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR THU AND DRY FOR FRI. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH FRONTAL POSITIONS AND TIMING QUESTIONS. BROADBRUSHING CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO AS TIMING IS DIFFICULT AND WILL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT IN THE EXTENDED EITHER. && .AVIATION /FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/... CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY AS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHERE AND WHEN THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL BE WITHIN THEM. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER MINNESOTA AT 17Z WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE SITUATION AT KCMX THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHOWERS SLIDING ALONG A FRONT NESTLED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. SHOWERS BEHIND THE BAND CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOOK MUCH WEAKER AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A TEMPO GROUP IN FOR KCMX FOR THE CURRENT LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH 21Z. REGARDLESS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR TO VFR OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KSAW...AS OF 17Z SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO POP UP ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN. FOR NOW...HAVE VCSH IN THE FORECAST UNTIL 6Z WHEN THE MORE PROMINENT DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DEVELOPING WITHIN SHRA/TSRA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...SO INCLUDED -SHRA FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. && .MARINE /FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR ISSUANCE/... AS A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT...THE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... NONE. LAKE MICHIGAN... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...MCB SHORT TERM...MCB LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...MCB MARINE...MCB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 344 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-131200- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE- GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 344 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 /244 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-131200- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 344 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 /244 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-131200- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 344 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. 07
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0332 PM HAIL 11 N MANISTIQUE 46.12N 86.25W
08/12/2011 M0.50 INCH SCHOOLCRAFT MI TRAINED SPOTTER
DIME SIZED HAIL OR LESS FALLING FOR THE LAST 4 MINUTES.
&&
MRDSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 336 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 MIZ014-085-122015- NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 336 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT... AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF BLANEY PARK...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF MANISTIQUE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... BLANEY PARK... GERMFASK... STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION. MCB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 416 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 MIZ007-014-085-122100- LUCE-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 416 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR LUCE AND SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT... AT 411 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GERMFASK...OR 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWBERRY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE... GERMFASK... HELMER... MCMILLAN... DOLLARVILLE... STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR YOUR LOCAL TELEVISION STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER SITUATION. 007
The Marquette radar (KMQT), 134 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:21 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Nickle to quarter-sized hail was observed at the far west end of Big Manistique Lake just east of Germfask.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, August 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 342017.