Hail in Maine, August 21, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE 1: A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
ENHANCED WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO INCLUDED CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. CAPES ARE CLOSE
TO 2000 J/KG IN SOME WESTERN AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT
MORE STABLE IN THE EAST WHERE SOME MARITIME AIR FLOWING NORTH WILL
COOL LOW LEVELS JUST A BIT. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH A BAND OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE STRONG ALOFT AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE LIKELY IN
MOST AREAS WITH OVER AN INCH AND A HALF POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING DOWNEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA AND THERE COULD BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY AS WELL AND IT
COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS BUT NO REAL SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN. ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
RAIN SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60'S ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW 70'S DOWNEAST.
WEDNESDAY WE REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70'S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.
USED A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM FOR PERIOD AND ADJUSTED AS NEEDED.&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

DECIDED TO BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN TIMING THE COLD FRONT TO PULL ACROSS THE REGION. MIDNIGHT
CREWS POPS LOOKED GOOD COMPARED TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE THAT IS
COMING IN. THEREFORE...EXTRAPOLATED POPS OUT ON THURSDAY TO GO
W/60% ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS AND CHC ELSEWHERE. THE
BEST FORCING W/THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS. INSTABILITY TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. COLD AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO A CHILLY DAY ON FRIDAY W/CAA ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
COLUMN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

FOLLOWED GMOS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ATTM BUT ADJUSTED THE POPS
DOWNWARD BELOW 15% GIVEN SKY ELEMENT SHOWING LESS THAN 30% FOR
SATURDAY. KEPT CHC POPS IN THERE FOR SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AS THE
LATEST GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE INDICATED THE TROPICAL SYSTEM TO SOUTH
MOVING TOWARD THE NE. THE 00Z ECMWF WAS INDICATING A SIMILAR SOLUTION.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS SHAPE UP IN REGARDS TO
THAT TROPICAL SYSTEM IRENE AS WE CLOSE IN THE EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AND LIFR
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE IFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS...FOG
AND HEAVY SHOWERS. SOME STRONG GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VFR GOING TO MVFR ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING W/SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SOUNDS WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. WINDS
COULD BE STRONGER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL FALL BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY
MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY COULD BE THE NEXT TIME WE COULD SEE SCA
CONDITIONS W/THE COLD FROPA. SW WINDS INCREASE TO SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS AND GUSTS ADDED TO 25 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4-6 FT ATTM LOOK
FAVORABLE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HILL
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...BLOOMER
MARINE...BLOOMER/HILL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

MEZ001-003-004-010-031-221630-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
1221 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE AND WEST CENTRAL MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY WEATHER INFORMATION TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU.

ANZ052-MEZ002-005-006-011-015>017-029-030-032-221630-
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME-
NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-INTERIOR HANCOCK-
CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-COASTAL WASHINGTON-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
1221 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...EAST CENTRAL MAINE...NORTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHEAST MAINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ050-051-070-221630-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO SCHOODIC POINT ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SCHOODIC POINT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON (DEER ISLE) ME FROM 25 TO
40 NM-
1221 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HEWITT