Heavy rain caused flooding across parts of Pike county during the late morning hours of September 4th.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Heavy rain caused flooding across parts of Pike county during the late morning hours of September 4th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 4, 7:19 PM EST, 1 hour 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 819 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 .SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALMOST ENDED AS THE SETTING SUN HAS REDUCED THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. BANDS OF PCPN EXTEND SW TO THE GULF AND EXPECT EVERYWHERE IN ERN KY TO RECEIVE SOME RAIN WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS. RAIN HAS COOLED THE AIR MASS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER FCST AND HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE DEG BUT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD THE FALLING TEMPS IN CHECK. FRONTAL POSITION SEEN ON 88D AS A THIN LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHRA EXTENDING FROM CMH TO CVG TO OWB. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NW BEHIND. FRONT IS MOVING SE AT 15 MPH AND SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR MOST NWRN COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT. LIGHT PCPN BEHIND THE FNT IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN AFTER SUNRISE...BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOWER FOR MONDAY WITH THE FNTL PASSAGE EXPECTING TO REDUCE ACCUMULATED PCPN. THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/ SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTION HAS BROKEN ACROSS KENTUCKY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING NORTH IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY. SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE BEEN REACHING SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL STORM LEE CONTINUES TO CHURN VERY SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING JET STREAK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL PUT THE OHIO VALLEY INTO A RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EASING SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...ALONG WITH MOISTURE BEING PULLED IN FROM LEE...WILL BRING A LARGE SWATH OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A BIT OF A LULL IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE THE CORE OF REMAINING DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE MOVES IN...BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL WILL THEN TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WEAKENS. AS FAR AS HYDRO CONCERNS GO...WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE ESF RIDE. ANY PROBLEMS THAT OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE ISOLATED...WHERE HEAVIER RAIN IS ABLE TO SET UP ACROSS A FEW PLACES THAT HAVE SEEN MORE SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF THERE IS MORE OF A WIDESPREAD THREAT...IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY. GENERALLY HAVE KEPT STORM TOTALS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTHWEST AND HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE FAVORED THE GFS AND ITS LIMITED DIURNAL RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE REMNANT SFC AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM TROPICAL STORM LEE. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NORTHERN MS/AL OR WESTERN TN REGION WITH THE RECENT MODEL TREND A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE SW WITH THE REMNANT LOW. THE RECENT ECMWF AND GFS RUNS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOME VARIATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN...GENERALLY MORE TOWARD SLOWER AND SW EARLY ON. INITIALLY THOUGH...THE ECMWF HAS DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS. IN FACT...THE PAST TWO GFS RUNS HAVE WRAPPED SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION BY THAT TIME WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO EAST TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY BY 12Z WED PER THE 12Z GFS RUN. THE 12Z ECMWF GRADUALLY WRAPS SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AROUND THE CIRCULATION BY 0Z ON THU...OR LATER THAN THE 12Z GFS...LIKELY PARTIALLY DUE TO A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION TO THE NORTH. THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THAT MATTER HAVE THE 500 MB LOW MEANDERING OVER THE WEST TN OR THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND AND GRADUALLY FILLING OVER TIME. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT 0Z MON...THE 12Z GFS STILL MAINTAINS THE 500 MB LOW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MOVES IT FURTHER TO THE NE BY THAT POINT. THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO REASONABLY MATCH THE 12Z ECMWF TIMING OF THE 500 MB LOW MOVING ON OFF TO THE NE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH RATHER HIGH CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS IS STILL ANTICIPATED...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS DUE TO TIMING AND TRACK VARIABILITY OF THE REMNANT LOW AND THE 500 MB LOW. QPF EARLY IN THE PERIOD COULD BE HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE NW CWA IF THE 12Z ECMWF IS CORRECT IN HOLDING ONTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE A BIT LONGER. HOWEVER...HPC QPF WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED AT THAT TIME RANGE AND SEEMED TO PROVIDE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE. OVERALL...WE CONTINUE WITH POPS SHOWING AN OVERALL LOWERING TREND AS THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE LOWER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...A REDUCTION IN CLOUDS MAY ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF DRY SLOTTING IS PRESENT ON EITHER WED OR THU...ENOUGH SOLAR HEATING MIGHT OCCUR FOR INSTABILITY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ONE OF THOSE AFTERNOONS AS WELL. HOWEVER... ATTM...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT THEN...BUT DID ALLOW FOR THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER ON FRI AND AGAIN FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR TEMPS...DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS/PRECIP EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. IF DRY SLOTTING MATERIALIZES ON WED...WED COULD END UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN THU...BUT HEADING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS. MAX T FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WAS CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS THAN RECENT MEX MOS GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/ ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO MOSTLY STEADY RAIN. WITHOUT ANYTHING ORGANIZED MOVING IN...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT THE TAF SITES...AND THEREFORE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...CHANGING TO MVFR VSBY IN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A HEAVIER SHOWER WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. AS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LEE STREAMS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR TOWARDS MID DAY ON MONDAY...AS THE FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LEE EXITS...ONLY TO SEE CONDITIONS DROP WITH THE END OF THE DAY LOSS OF HEATING. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN/DUSTY LONG TERM....JP AVIATION...DUSTY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 433 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-051100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 433 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MORE STEADY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO...SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE LIKELY ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LONDON...TO HAZARD...TO PRESTONSBURG. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY STRONG WINDS...AS WELL AS ANY OCCURRENCES OF FLOODING. GEOGERIAN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 KYZ107-119-042045- JOHNSON-MARTIN- 401 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 ...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON... JOHNSON AND NORTHERN MARTIN. AT 401 PM EDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR OFFUTT...OR NEAR PAINTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD. DUSTY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 453 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 KYZ107-119-042200- JOHNSON-MARTIN- 453 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 ...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING... JOHNSON AND NORTHERN MARTIN. AT 453 PM EDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR BOONS CAMP...OR NEAR PAINTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD. DUSTY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 529 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 KYZ104-106-042230- ELLIOTT-MORGAN- 529 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING... NORTHEASTERN MORGAN AND ELLIOTT. AT 528 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CROCKETT...OR NEAR SANDY HOOK...THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD. DUSTY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 541 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 KYZ044-051-042245- BATH-FLEMING- 541 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2011 ...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING... BATH AND FLEMING. AT 541 PM EDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED NEAR BETHEL...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF OWINGSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD. DUSTY
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood, 1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several roads were covered with water in the community of Johns Creek including one lane of Hwy 119 by the Johns Creek Elementary School.
Water was covering Stone Coal Rd.
Two feet of water was covering Bearfork Rd near Marlows.
A strong wind gust blew down a tree on Hurricane Creek Rd near Elkhorn City.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 339385, 339386, 339388, 339387.