Precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches, weak winds aloft and the presence of a weak boundary led to the development of scattered slow moving storms across central Kentucky during the afternoon of July 30th. These storms produced isolated rainfall totals of 2 to over 3 inches within an hour's time.
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The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
Precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches, weak winds aloft and the presence of a weak boundary led to the development of scattered slow moving storms across central Kentucky during the afternoon of July 30th. These storms produced isolated rainfall totals of 2 to over 3 inches within an hour's time.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 30, 1:56 PM EST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)... CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES WITH MAINLY SLOW MOVING T-STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ILN/BNA REVEAL A VERY MOIST ATMOS WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SUPPORTING THIS HEAVY RAINFALL. ACCORDING TO THE 15Z HRRR...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OR BECOMING VERY ISLD IN NATURE WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ONE MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KY PUSHING SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. THEREFORE WILL KEEP A 20 POP IN OVERNIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR SUNDAY...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SETTLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTH CENTRAL KY MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH STILL TO GET SOME ISLD CONVECTION ACROSS ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. ALSO...SUNDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VERY LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS FROM RAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STICKING AROUND OVERNIGHT FROM CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THINK THAT THERE/S STILL A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG SO WILL INCLUDE IN THE GRIDS. AS FOR TEMPS...TONIGHT/S LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE MOST PART. WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE DID TODAY SO WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR SUNDAY. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)... WELL...THE MAIN STORY OF THE FCST IS OF COURSE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY ...WITH THE SECONDARY STORY BEING A COLD FRONT MOVING INT OT HE AREA AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED SCT CONVECTION TO SOME LUCKY FOLKS. MON-WED... A HERCULEAN 597M ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ANCHORED BETWEEN MCCONNELL AFB KS AND VANCE AFB OK WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING WELL NORTH AND EAST OF CENTER. THIS WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION WITH TORRID LOW AND MID LEVEL TEMPS. WITH VEGETATION DRYING OUT...AREAS WEST OF I 65 MAY HAVE OUR 1ST 100 DEGREE DAY ON TUE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT AT 98 AND LET NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS REFINE THIS...BUT WITH +20C AIR OVER WESTERN 1/3 OF CWA...THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER WILL BE CONTINUING IN EARNEST. LOWS WILL BE BALMY IN THE 70S. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE SOME HEAT HEADLINE OUT ON TUE AND WED AT SOME POINT. ON WED...LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA AND ORIENTATED FROM THE NW THRU SE WITH CONVECTION THAT MOVES DOWN THRU - SAT... THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION SUPPRESSING HEIGHTS A TAD AND BRINGING A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SCT POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. TIMING OF THE FRONT IS NOT CLEAR YET ESPECIALLY W.R.T. THE ECM PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES TO MAKE BIG CHANGES. OVERALL FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE AND RAISED POPS THU AND FRI UP ABOUT 5% AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SAT AS IT APPEARS THE WEAK FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS SOMEWHERE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)... SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO POP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SHORT/WV ENERGY...A SFC FRONT OVER CENTRAL KY...AND POCKETS OF HEATING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE AIDING IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HAVE FOLLOWED THE 13Z HRRR FOR THE MOST PART WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FORECAST WHICH HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT PRECIP. WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA SO KEPT THE VCTS. IF ANY STORM LOOKS TO DEFINITELY HIT A TAF SITE...WILL NEED TO QUICKLY AMEND AS HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS PROBABLE AND WOULD LIKELY CAUSE IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS. STORMS SHOULD DIE DOWN AROUND 0Z TONIGHT. THE NEXT FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG TONIGHT. THINK THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND SOMEWHAT LIMITING FOG. HOWEVER...IF STORMS HIT OR GET CLOSE TO A TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL PRIME THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF LL MOISTURE FOR FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. THEREFORE WENT AHEAD AND PUT MVFR BR IN BWG/LEX...6SM AT SDF. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING NNE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && SHORT TERM........AMS LONG TERM.........JDG AVIATION..........AMS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 340 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-311945- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN- CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY- BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY- JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY- SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY- FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY- MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY- GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY- TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY- ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY- CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- 340 PM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011 /240 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY CAUSING FLOODING PROBLEMS AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT AS WELL ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE THIS EVENING. AMS/JDG
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 90 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:37 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding due to an estimated 3 to 4 inches of rain closed three separate roads northwest of Richmond.
A spotter reported 2.5 inches of rain within one hour in Georgetown. Elkhorn Creek flooded one lane of State Highway 460 just west of Georgetown.
Louisville Emergency Management reported that rising water briefly closed Mount Washington and Washington Green Roads south of the Gene Snyder Expressway. The NWS forecast office recorded just under 2 inches within one hour.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 317964, 317962, 317963.