A nearly stationary thunderstorm dropped very heavy rainfall on portions of Bath county during the afternoon and evening hours of July 16th. Flash flooding was reported on Hwy 36 near Owingsville.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A nearly stationary thunderstorm dropped very heavy rainfall on portions of Bath county during the afternoon and evening hours of July 16th. Flash flooding was reported on Hwy 36 near Owingsville. Parts of the road were heavily damaged by the flowing water.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 1:55 PM EST, 3 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE LARGE UPPER HIGH STAYING IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. THE WARM MOIST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES HIGH. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS THAT WILL IN ESSENCE STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS NOT A CAP FORMING...BUT JUST SOME GENERAL WARMING. WITH THE INCREASED STABILITY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO FORM AND WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH COVERAGE WHEN THEY DO. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A BLEND OF THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND AND THE BIAS CORRECT NAM MOS. THE GFS MOS STILL CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM. THIS PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND NEAR DAWN VALLEY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. .LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL THEME OF THE EXTENDED AS THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE DOMINANT RIDGE CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE HEART OF THE CONUS SLOWLY BUILDING EASTWARD THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE 16.12Z SUITE SHOWS RATHER REMARKABLE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP ACCORDINGLY TO INCLUDE CHANCE TSTMS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME DISAGREEMENT PERSISTS WITH A SECOND WAVE FOLLOWING A SIMILAR TRACK ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE MIX FOR NOW AS FCST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE DURING BOTH DAYS. HAVE GONE DRY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE THINKING THAT SFC HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS ANY ACTIVITY. THE PRIMARY ISSUE FOR THE PERIOD STILL LOOKS TO BE A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY SOARING INTO THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEDNESDAY THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIT THIS IN THE HWO FOR NOW...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/ CEILINGS WERE IN THE 3-6K FT RANGE COVERED MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 18Z. THIS COULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALIZED RESTRICTION TO MVFR OR IFR...BUT THE PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN POINT IS TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN POINT TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS. AFTER ABOUT 22Z... WEAKENING SUN SHOULD BRING A DECLINE IN SHOWERS. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN LAST NIGHT. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. PUT IN SOME TEMPO IFR FOR KLOZ AND KSME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JJ LONG TERM...MB AVIATION...JJ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 237 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-172145- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 237 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL ALSO MAKE A COMEBACK...WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY TOPPING 100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HAL/JJ
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:21 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Hwy 36 was blocked by flood waters from Slate Creek.
Highway 36 East was heavily damaged by flood waters from Slate Creek. In addition, several businesses along Hwy 36 had flood waters enter them between 6 and 730 pm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 326640, 326644.