During the evening hours of July 11th and overnight hours of July 12th, a complex of thunderstorms moved out of Ohio and across the eastern half of eastern KY. The storms brought down trees and dumped heavy rainfall on several counties in eastern KY.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
During the evening hours of July 11th and overnight hours of July 12th, a complex of thunderstorms moved out of Ohio and across the eastern half of eastern KY. The storms brought down trees and dumped heavy rainfall on several counties in eastern KY.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 5:54 PM EST, 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 654 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 .SHORT TERM...UPDATED MESOSCALE UPDATE... GRADUALLY WEAKENING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BRUSH FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THEN HAVE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SLIGHT POP TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY OUTFLOW POTENTIAL. THE MOST ROBUST THUNDERSTORM IS HANGING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE COMPLEX...CURRENTLY HAMMERING CARTER COUNTY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS PARTICULAR STORM AS IT APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO BUILD MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH...WHERE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ WE HAVE A HOT...MUGGY AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AN MCV TRACKING THRU THE NRN HALF OF OHIO. THIS MCV SHOULD MISS ERN KY BUT OUTFLOW FROM THE PASSAGE MAY TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE CAPPING FROM THE SFC HIGH HAS HELD CONVECTION IN CHECK TO THIS POINT. EXPECTING THE TROF TO DROP THRU THE AREA LATE TUE NITE AND EARLY WED. THIS SHOULD PROMPT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE AS THE CAP IS ERODED AND LOW LEVEL LIFT IS ENHANCED. TEMPERATURES WIL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR THIS SHORT TERM FCST AS WE HAVE A HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE AND WILL EXTEND THAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 PM TUE. OVERNIGHT HEAT INDEX WILL NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 70S TONIGHT AND WILL SHOOT UP TO THE LOW 100S TUE AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROF WILL FINALLY HOLD THE TEMPS IN CHECK WITH SOME DRIER AIR IN PLACE WED AFTERNOON AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/ THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BOTH ADVERTISING A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED BY BOTH MODELS TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PAVING THE WAY FOR SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE. THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE REGARDING THIS. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DIFFERING SOMEWHAT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN MORE DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION FORMATION EACH DAY...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TRYING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. THAT BEING SAID...WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST...GOING WITH LOWER PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AND DIURNAL PEAKS IN ACTIVITY BETWEEN 15 AND 22Z EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...COINCIDING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES AND PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THE GOOD NEWS IS...THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT ADVERTISING NEARLY AS MUCH INSTABILITY AS PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG DURING THE DAY TIME PERIODS...AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND MINUS 3...WHICH IS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL DATA WAS SUGGESTING. ALL IN ALL THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE MINIMAL WITH LACK OF A PERSISTENT STRONG SURFACE TRIGGER AND COOL DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR DAYS 4-7...GOING WITH GENERALLY HIGHER CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES AND DEBRIS LEFT OVER FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS MORE OF THE SAME. ADJUSTED THE DAY TIME HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER HCP GUIDANCE...STAYING BELOW THE WARMER MEXMOS NUMBERS. THE MEX TEMPERATURES DID LOOK MUCH MORE REASONABLE THAN THEY HAVE IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL WEEKS...BUT CONSIDERING THERE WILL BE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES DURING MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DECIDE TO STAY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE SAME RANGE EACH DAY...THE HEAT WILL REMAIN OPPRESSIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/ HAVE INSERTED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ALL OF THE INSTABILITY...SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE VCTS IN THE FORECAST IS TO COVER ANYTHING THAT MIGHT BUILD FROM THE HEATING TODAY. THESE STORMS WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FOR TUE MORNING. HAVE NOT GONE AS LOW AS FIRST ESTIMATES WITH ONLY LOZ GOING BELOW LANDING MINIMUMS THIS MORNING. TUE MORNING COULD SEE BOTH LOZ/SME BELOW MINIMUMS BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY WILL LET FUTURE FORECASTERS MAKE THAT DETERMINATION. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && MESOSCALE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...DUSTY LONG TERM....AR AVIATION...DUSTY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 404 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-122315- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING... OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO... PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE... CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON... HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG... INEZ...PIKEVILLE 404 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 THIS AFTERNOON WILL CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW THE MID 70S OVERNIGHT... GIVING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT. REFER TO THE HEAT ADVISORY... SDFNPWJKL...FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH VALUES RISING INTO THE LOWER 100S IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BOTH DAYS...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER WITH DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSING RUNNING FULL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DUSTY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 706 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 KYZ104-112330- ELLIOTT- 706 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2011 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTY THROUGH 730 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING... EASTERN ELLIOTT. AT 706 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRUIN...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF SANDY HOOK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY. GEOGERIAN
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 57 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:17 UTC.
16 thunderstorm wind, 2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down along Rt 32 near Sandy Hook.
Large limbs were blown down along Hwy 201 south of Sitka.
A couple of large tree limbs were blown down.
Trees that were blown down took down a power line as they fell.
A tree was blown down along Route 40 northeast of Salyersville.
A portion of the roof of a mobile home was blown off.
A tree was blown down along the Mountain Parkway.
Large tree limbs were blown down.
Several trees were blown down along Hwy 404.
A few trees were blown down along Hwy 1428.
A wind gust of 61 mph was measured at the Big Sandy RAWS station at the Big Sandy Regional Airport.
A tree was blown down along James Road northeast of Poplar Plains.
A tree was blown down in Poplar Plains.
Trees were blown down northwest of Cranston.
A tree was blown down along Helena Road near Flemingsburg.
Between 1.49 and 2.15 inches of rain fell in the Morehead vicinity between 1215 and 115 am. The heavy rain caused ponding of water on Main St and other streets within the city of Morehead.
Trees were blown down.
Almost 3 inches of rain fell northeast of Hindman between 2 and 4 am. The bulk of the rain occurred between 2 and 3 am.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 326180, 326182, 326184, 326185, 326187, 326202, 326204, 326206, 326208, 326209, 326212, 326215, 326216, 326217, 326218, 326221, 326219, 326224.