Numerous car accidents resulted early on the morning of January 31st, as light freezing rain created slick roadways in Fleming and Rowan counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Numerous car accidents resulted early on the morning of January 31st, as light freezing rain created slick roadways in Fleming and Rowan counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 3:16 AM EST, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 316 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH HAS LED TO A RATHER EXTENSIVE STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EARLY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...GENERALLY BELOW 850 MB...ADVECTION OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR IS OCCURRING. THIS COMBINATION SO FAR AS KEPT CEILINGS FROM DROPPING MUCH AND THE MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SHALLOWER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A RATHER ZONAL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INITIALLY WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN BY TONIGHT WITH RISING HEIGHTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO ITS NORTH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LEADS TO A MEAN TROUGH EXTENDING WEST FROM THE DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX SW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUE. MODELS GENERALLY PROG THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY TO CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES NE TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGING ON TUE NIGHT WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER TO THE WEST MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES AT THAT POINT. THE 0Z ECMWF...0Z WRF AND 0Z GFS ARE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE IL/WESTERN IN REGION BY 12Z WED. THE 0Z GFS IS A TAD FURTHER EAST AT THAT POINT. OVERALL...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC SYSTEM THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER TX/SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND THEN LIFT INTO THE MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS BY 0Z WED AND THEN REACH EASTERN IL/WESTERN IN BY 12Z WED PER ECMWF/GFS THOUGH SOME MODELS HAVE A MORE ENLONGATED OR TRIPLE POINT LOW AT THAT POINT. THE SFC LOW SHOULD BE NEAR OR EXITING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GRADUALLY RISING SFC PRESSURES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ARE ANTICIPATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN THE PIEDMONT COASTAL PLAIN SETTING UP...WITH THE TYPICAL INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT/WARM WEDGE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE SE AND EVENTUALLY MORE TO THE SOUTH BY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...AND THE NE FLOW CONTINUING IN THE FAR NORTH AS AN INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. AT THE SAME TIME...WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING 8H TEMPS TODAY ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH 8H TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO ABOUT 4C BY THE END OF THE DAY COURTESY OF A LLJ NEARING 25KT. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS...BUT SINCE THE GFS APPEARS TO STILL BE OVERDONE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FEEL THAT THE DRIER WRF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS DURING THE FIRST 24 HRS OF ITS RUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...TRENDED TO GO DRIER THAN THE 0Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH DID NOT GO QUITE AS DRY AS THE 0Z WRF. THE LIFTING INVERTED TROUGH/WARM FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE TEMP GRADIENT FROM FLEMING COUNTY IN THE NORTH TO BELL COUNTY IN THE SOUTH. FOR MAX T TODAY WENT WITH ABOUT A 20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT MAGNITUDE AND IN PLACEMENT OF A GRADIENT NEAR THE MTN PARKWAY IS NOT THAT HIGH...BUT WAS GENERALLY A BLEND OF GUIDANCE. MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AS WELL AS AT TIMES DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN AND PERHAPS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES OR AT LEAST QPF WELL INTO TONIGHT. DYNAMICS...PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO TUE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH...THOUGH CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUE AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE PASSING BY FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE RATHER RAPIDLY EAST ON TUE NIGHT AND BE NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE KY/WV BORDER BY 12Z WED. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MILD TEMPS FOR MUCH OF TUE NIGHT...WITH COLD ADVECTION STARTING TO KICK IN LATE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS NEARING 50 AS WELL AS DECENT DYNAMICS WOULD ARGUE FOR AT LEAST SOME THREAT OF A LITTLE THUNDER. TIMING AT NIGHT WOULD LIMIT THIS AND ANYTHING THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD NOT BE SFC BASED. HOWEVER...WE PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH A FEW HOURS OF THUNDER POTENTIAL NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD ADVECTION ON WED SHOULD BE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 8H TEMPS PROGGED TO FALL TO ABOUT -10 TO -12C BY 0Z THU. ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL DEPART WITH THE LOW RATHER QUICKLY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THE COLD ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME ON WED SHOULD LEAD TO A THREAT OF SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY TO NAIL DOWN AS AN HOUR OR TWO DIFFERENCE IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF SREF...0Z GFS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR TIMING IN THE COLDER AIR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. HOWEVER...A GENERAL THEME OF WARMER MAX T IN THE BIG SANDY REGION AND COLDER IN THE WEST SHOULD HOLD ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS COULD ALSO BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AND GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH OR SO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BUT DIVERGED AGAIN WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS...ADDING A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. DECIDED IT MADE MORE SENSE TO STAY CLOSER TO THE MORE CONSISTENT 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION. WE BASICALLY START OUT WITH BROAD WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEREAFTER FOCUS OF ACTIVITY IN THE EXTENDED CENTERS AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY LATE DY5...FRIDAY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY. BUT SOME CHALLENGE IS INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST VIA A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY DY6...SATURDAY. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON ANY PHASING THAT OCCURS WITH THESE TWO DISTURBANCES. ATTM...SOUTHWEST LOW APPEARS TO SHEAR OUT AND FILL AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH...LOW OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHAT IS LEFT OF THESE TWO FEATURES THEN MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE EASTERN CONUS BY DY7...SUNDAY IN A WEAKENED AND PROBABLY DISORDERLY FASHION. FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY RUSHED INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN THE WEATHER UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN AN INHERITED SLIGHT POP FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY TIMING VARIATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN SOLUTIONS. ATTM BASED ON COLUMN TEMPERATURES...OR THE TOP DOWN APPROACH ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY TAKE THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CORRESPONDING BOUNDARY LAYER DETAILS THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST... PREFERRED TO STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING BY USING A BLEND OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. && .AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/ MOISTURE IS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND IS CONTINUING TO RIDE UP OVER A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER. THIS HAS LED TO STRATUS AND STRATOCU DECK TO FORM. THE WRF IS PROGGING SOME SUBSIDENCE NEAR 850 MB LATER ON TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO HELP THE STRATUS/STRATOCU TO LOWER WITH TIME. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...RELATIVELY HIGH CIG HEIGHTS AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY -DZ. OVERALL...THE MODELS STILL APPEAR TO BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING THE DECK TOO FAST COMPARED TO CURRENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...SO HAVE CEILINGS HOLDING IN THE VFR RANGE THROUGH THE 7Z TO 11Z TIMEFRAME. MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR BY 09Z TO 12Z PERIOD...AND HOLDING AT LEAST THROUGH 14Z. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT THE LOWER STRATUS AND BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GEOGERIAN/JP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 425 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011200- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 425 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND CHANGE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. JP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Sleet started falling around 5 am and then changed to a mix of rain and snow at 6 am. The depth of the sleet was about 1/10 of an inch at 7 am. The roads were slushy in sheltered areas in Turkey Creek.
Numerous non-fatality accidents occurred along Hwy 174 between mile markers 148 and 149 in the Haldeman area of Rowan county.
A non-injury accident occurred on Clover Hill Rd 4 miles west of Fleminsburg due to freezing rain.
A non-injury accident occurred on Hwy 32 in Flemingsburg.
A non-injury accident occurred on Hwy 11 in Fleminsburg.
An injury accident occurred on Hwy 165 in Ewing.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, January 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 275902, 275897, 275898, 275899, 275900, 275901.