Damaging Winds in Kentucky, February 28, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS TODAY...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN
AND SATURATED TERRAIN COULD PRODUCE FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MUCH DRIER PATTERN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TODAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL RIDE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHEAST
OH BY 15Z...AND THE OH RIVER BY 17Z. THEN...FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD TO
PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS
PERHAPS SOME SEVERE...AND LIGHTNING. STRONG DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO
WEAK TORNADOES AS WELL.

MODELS INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT DOMINATED BY DYNAMIC FORCING. STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STORM RELATIVE HELICITY...CAPE UNDER 200
J/KG...PW NEAR 1.45 INCHES...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S...AND
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.

WITH NEAR SATURATED TERRAIN...THESE HEAVY RAIN CAN PRODUCE FLOODING
OF CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL KEEP THIS DISCUSSION FAIRLY SHORT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PENDING
THIS MORNING.

CLEAR THE FRONT AND THE POPS QUICKLY AFTER 00Z TUESDAY WITH THE
BOUNDARY CHARGING SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY
OUT COMPLETELY BEHIND THE FRONT...SUGGESTING A VERY SHARP GRADIENT
IN THE CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT BETWEEN CLOUDY AND CLEAR. COLDER AIR
MASS WILL ADVECT IN...AND WILL SEE A STRONG DROP IN TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT.

BEYOND THIS AIRMASS CHANGE INTO MID WEEK...BASICALLY CHASING CLOUDS
IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE MOST COVERAGE COMING FROM A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN ZONES AND HANG UP A BIT IN THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OTHERWISE WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED...AND SHOULD SEE HEALTHY DIURNAL RANGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT MIDLEVEL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BECOME A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE
END...RESULTING IN A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY NEXT SUNDAY.
AS ALWAYS THOUGH...THE DETAILS DIFFER...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.  THE GFS IS IN THE CAMP PROMOTING A FASTER...WEAKER OPEN
WAVE ARRIVING IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z SUNDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF WANTS TO BE ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER AND HANG BACK ENERGY LONGER
IN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE.  THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE
WEAKER AND QUICKER THAN ITS 00Z VERSION THOUGH.  IT COULD BE
TRENDING TOWARDS THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION OFFERED BY HPC BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE FOLLOWED HERE.

STILL FORESEE A WEAK...DRY FROPA ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BRIDGING ACROSS A COLD FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA IS THEN IN COMMAND THROUGH THURSDAY.  BACKED OFF ON
HPC TEMPERATURE SUGGESTIONS BOTH DAYS...TRYING TO KEEP THE NUMBERS
CLOSER TO MEX/ENSEMBLE IN THIS ZONAL PATTERN.  READINGS WILL STILL BE
NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

WARM FRONT APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH...FOLLOWED BY THE SLOW APPROACH OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WHICH
MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.  AS A
RESULT...ELECTED TO HAVE A SLOW INCREASE IN POPS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DRY PERIOD IN HERE SOMEWHERE
ONCE CWA GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR...BUT FEEL IT IS TOO EARLY TO TRY
TO TIME THAT OCCURRENCE.  START ALLOWING POPS TO FALL OFF ON SUNDAY
ONCE FROPA OCCURS.  INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS WELL
GIVEN OVERALL STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT AHEAD. MEX
IS WARMER THAN THE ENSEMBLE FRI/SAT...AND THINK THAT IS REASONABLE
IN THIS SCENARIO.  STAYED WARMER ON SUNDAY TOO...WITH FROPA TOUGH TO
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RADAR IMAGES SHOW PCPN EXITING THE NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT.
EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AS DEVELOPING WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. KEPT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN
THE TERMINALS ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT /ISSUED
CORRECTION/.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A LULL IN WEATHER FROM 03Z
TO 10Z GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTH OF CRW OVER SOUTHERN WV AND SW
VA...WHILE...AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS A PEAK IN ACTIVITY ACROSS
SE OHIO AND NW WV THROUGH ABOUT 10-15Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OVERNIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT...PASSING LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AFFECTING MOST SITES...ESPECIALLY HTS...PKB...AND
CRW EARLY AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY RAIN...AND
PERHAPS SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THEREFORE...EXPECT IFR IN CONVECTION DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...AHEAD OF...AND ALONG COLD FRONT. CEILINGS LOWERING NR 1
THSD FT BKN IN HEAVIER CONVECTION.

CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE FROM THE NW NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 02/28/11
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    L    M    M    L    L    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    L    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    H    M    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
LINGERING IFR POSSIBLE IN POST FRONTAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MON
NT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
212 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

OHZ066-067-075-083-084-010715-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-JACKSON OH-VINTON-
212 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 28 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ076-085>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-
046-047-010715-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-WASHINGTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-
TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-
MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
212 AM EST MON FEB 28 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.