On February 1st, a strong low pressure system developed in the Mississippi Valley area and tracked northeast into the Ohio valley. The system produced strong winds across eastern Kentucky with the highest amounts along the ridges bordering Virginia.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
On February 1st, a strong low pressure system developed in the Mississippi Valley area and tracked northeast into the Ohio valley. The system produced strong winds across eastern Kentucky with the highest amounts along the ridges bordering Virginia. Therefore, a Wind Warning was issued for the 3 Virginia bordering counties and a Wind Advisory was issued for the other counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 9:59 PM EST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 959 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 .SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S TO THE NORTH...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S TO THE SOUTH. CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER...LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ARE COMMON. THIS FRONT HAD BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY..BUT IT IS NOW STARTING TO CREEP NORTHWARD. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AT AROUND 850 MB HAS BEEN THE MOST PREVALENT IN THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES THIS EVENING. FGX IS STILL REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES...WITH A RAWS SITE IN CENTRAL ROWAN COUNTY REPORTING AT 31 DEGREES. ROAD SENSOR TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE FREEZING...WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW COOLING TREND. CALLS TO LOCAL DISPATCH HAVE REVEALED NO PROBLEMS WITH SLICK SPOTS AT THIS POINT. THE COOLER SURFACE AIR MASS IS VERY SHALLOW...WITH JKL VAD WIND SHOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND. ANY RAIN THAT IS FALLING IS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING BETWEEN 4 AND 5 C. THIS WILL ONLY HELP TO CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT THE COOLER SURFACE AIR MASS...SO WILL BE LETTING THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR PATCHY FREEZING RAIN EXPIRE AT 10 PM NORTH OF I-64. THE LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A GOOD GRADIENT OF POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THE REST OF THE NIGHT...WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 SUSCEPTIBLE TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS LIKELY SEEN IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL FRESHEN UP SOME OF THE POP TRENDS IN THE GRIDS. WILL ALSO BE ADJUSTING THE LOW TEMPERATURES TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...AS WOULD ONLY EXPECT A STEADY TO GRADUAL RISE IN READINGS FROM NOW UNTIL DAWN AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH. THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/ FRONTAL POSITION TO OUR SOUTH HAS WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE AIR AT THE SFC. TEMPS IN THE SOUTH... CLOSER TO THE FRONT HAVE WARMED. WARMING IN PART DUE TO FEWER CLOUDS AND IN PART TO WARM RAIN WHERE IT IS RAINING. FARTHER NORTH THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER AND THE RAIN THIS MORNING FELL AS FREEZING RAIN. TEMPS HAVE WARMED ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK FOR ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY. FORTUNATELY THEY DO NOT HAVE ANY RAIN THERE AT THE MOMENT BUT THERE IS PCPN APPROACHING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING IN THE SRN PLAINS AND SHOULD EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY... TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO THE OHIO RIVER. AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WHICH WILL ADVECT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. EXPECT PCPN TO INCREASE TUE NITE INTO EARLY WED AS THE TRAILING COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH PASSAGE. JUST PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WE EXPECT VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY WED MORNING THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND AND DROP FROM UPPER 50S ON TUE AFTERNOON TO LOWER 20S BY THU MORNING. .LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BOOKENDED BY A LARGE RIDGE UP THE WEST COAST AND A FLATTER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. BY THE WEEKEND...THE TROUGH WAFFLES EASTWARD SETTING UP A GOOD NORTHWEST FETCH OF AIR FROM SIBERIA SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ABLE TO GET ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI HOWEVER WITH THE WEAK RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE OBSERVED NAO AND AO WOULD SEEM TO BACK UP THIS IDEA. THUS...ANY ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD BE DEFLECTED TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TWO SYSTEMS TO WORRY ABOUT DURING THE PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY AS THE PLAINS TROUGH WAFFLES EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD THEN RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT AND BE LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG...GENERALLY SHOWING UP IN THE 1005 MB TO 1010 MB RANGE DEPENDING ON WHAT MODEL YOU LOOK AT BY THE TIME IT IS LOCATED OFF HATTERAS AROUND 12Z SAT. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY RATHER PLENTIFUL MOISTURE PER THE 12Z ECMWF/GEM/GFS CONSENSUS. THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM WOULD DELIVER A GLANCING BLOW OF LIGHT PRECIP TO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY EVENING SO WILL NUDGE POPS UPWARDS A BIT FROM INHERITED NUMBERS. THICKNESSES FROM THE PREFERRED ECMWF ARE MARGINAL FOR SNOW OR RAIN SO WILL INDICATE BOTH. THE TROUGH WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF TO OUR WEST BY MONDAY WITH PROGS INDICATING ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE MIDWEST. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SO WILL INDICATE A 20 POP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR RAIN OR SNOW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A MODERATING TREND AFTER STARTING OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY. THE TEMP FORECAST IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE OVER THE WEEKEND THOUGH AS A STRONGER FRIDAY/SATURDAY SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WOULD DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. FOR NOW...WE WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. && .AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/ CIGS WILL LOWER AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. EXPECT SME TO FALL TO IFR FIRST WITH LOZ A BIT LATER AND FINALLY JKL LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FOG AND OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR...OCCASIONALLY IFR...RANGE INTO THE DAY TUESDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT CB AND VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT...AT THE SFC...FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS POSSIBLE LATE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...DUSTY/GEOGERIAN LONG TERM....ABE AVIATION...GREIF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1045 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011200- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 1045 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND CHANGE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DUSTY/GEOGERIAN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Kentucky mesonet observing site in the Flatwoods area of southwestern Pike county at an elevation of 2774 feet reported a 60 MPH wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 272965.