Flash Flooding and Hail in Kentucky, April 19, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
153 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT GIVEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE PROSPECTS OF PCPN.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL OHIO. LATEST RUC/HRRR CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT SHOULD SAG NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE AIR
REMAINS CHILLY GIVEN LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW. TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE BALMY. TO ADD TO THE COMPLEXITY...A
STRONG...MOIST LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GET GOING ACRS THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT...ADVECTING...MOIST...CONVERGENT AIR
NE ALONG AND NORTH OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE. AS A RESULT OF MENTIONED
PARAMETERS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACRS THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH PWAT APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE PLACED
HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONES/GRIDS. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FLOOD/FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN RECENT RAINS AND MOIST
GROUND...RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED TO SEE IF
ONE WOULD NEED HOISTING. WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION...RAIN COOLED AIR WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE
FRONT TO DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S...WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO OVERNIGHT LOWS. ALSO...WILL MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM. THIS
COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY TO
EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND THEREFORE AFTER MORNING
CONVECTION LIMITED HIGHEST AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
ACROSS THE FA DUE TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA IN THE UPPER 70S WHEREAS EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP WEST
OF THE FA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS PRETTY DECENT TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FA AND THEREFORE A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE APPEARS
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND ALSO
ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE FORECAST. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEREFORE
SOME FLOODING ISSUES MAY ALSO DEVELOP. PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
FA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE FA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THEN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
THE NORTH IT WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION AND THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS WEAK WAVES MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE REPLACED BY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES WITH
WINDS BECOMING NERLY. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVERNIGHT BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTN.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS FRONT IN A REGION OF MOIST ASCENT DYE TO A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET. THESE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. PCPN MAY
BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS DROPPING
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST DURG THE DAY AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO THE WEST. THEREFORE EXPECT
PCPN TO DECREASE DURG THE DAY. WITH MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
BEHIND WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE.

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z WED. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS AT THE 30 HOUR KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN/NOVAK
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN/NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
916 PM EDT MON APR 18 2011

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-200130-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
916 PM EDT MON APR 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
FEW STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MAY PRODUCE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME FLOODING ISSUES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL EARLY ON TUESDAY.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND TRACK INTO WILMINGTONS FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER. CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
142 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094-190645-
SWITZERLAND IN-OWEN KY-CARROLL KY-GALLATIN KY-
142 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GALLATIN...
CARROLL...NORTHWESTERN OWEN AND SWITZERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 245 AM
EDT...

AT 135 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INTERSTATE
71 AT MILE MARKER 40...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
PRODUCE ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...VEVAY AND WARSAW.

ALSO...LANGSTAFF...BRAYTOWN...WORTHVILLE...EASTERDAY...EAGLE
STATION...GHENT...WHEATLEY AND CARSON ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3873 8524 3870 8521 3874 8521 3888 8487
      3868 8478 3862 8477 3858 8508 3859 8509
      3858 8521 3863 8523 3870 8530

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
157 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

INZ073>075-080-KYZ091-OHZ077-190700-
SWITZERLAND IN-OHIO IN-DEARBORN IN-RIPLEY IN-BOONE KY-HAMILTON OH-
157 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON...BOONE...
SOUTHEASTERN RIPLEY...SOUTHERN DEARBORN...OHIO AND SWITZERLAND
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM EDT...

AT 150 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BENHAM...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE ONE HALF
INCH DIAMETER HAIL. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...DILLSBORO...AURORA...
RISING SUN...LAWRENCEBURG...GREENDALE...BURLINGTON...UNION...OAKBROOK
AND FLORENCE.

ALSO...FAIRVIEW...FARMERS RETREAT...BEAR BRANCH...ALLENSVILLE...COLD
SPRINGS...ABERDEEN...MILTON AND PATE ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3916 8472 3892 8460 3885 8521 3891 8521
      3891 8526 3902 8530

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
213 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

INZ080-KYZ090>097-190715-
SWITZERLAND IN-KENTON KY-OWEN KY-PENDLETON KY-BOONE KY-BRACKEN KY-
CAMPBELL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-
213 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GRANT...EASTERN
GALLATIN...CAMPBELL...NORTHWESTERN BRACKEN...BOONE...NORTHERN
PENDLETON...EXTREME NORTHERN OWEN...KENTON AND EXTREME EASTERN
SWITZERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 315 AM EDT.

AT 210 AM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INTERSTATE
71 AT US ROUTE 127...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
PRODUCE ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CRITTENDEN...WALTON...
BUTLER...CLARYVILLE AND ALEXANDRIA.

ALSO...RYLE...MUNK...BIG BONE...BEAVERLICK...VERONA...SHERMAN...
NORTHCUTT AND BRACHT ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3886 8488 3899 8432 3887 8423 3883 8423
      3881 8422 3880 8417 3876 8414 3865 8481