On April 16th, showers and thunderstorms moved north into Bell, Harlan, and Pike counties. The storms trained over the same areas, prompting the issuance of 2 flash flood warnings.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
On April 16th, showers and thunderstorms moved north into Bell, Harlan, and Pike counties. The storms trained over the same areas, prompting the issuance of 2 flash flood warnings.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 16, 12:55 AM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 155 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 .SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/ 02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AND MATURE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDPOINT OF THE MISSOURI AND IOWA BORDER. FROM THIS SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ARE SCRAPING THROUGH KENTUCKY. A NEARLY STALLED WARM FRONT HAS WOUND ITS WAY AMONG THE EAST KENTUCKY HILLS WHILE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS FURTHER TO THE WEST AND APPROACHING CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THE WARM FRONT...THIS FAR NORTH...HAS BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE LITTLE MORE THAN BENIGN RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA...ONLY NOW ABLE O OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING IN THE FAR EAST. RECENTLY...A DECENT RAIN FREE HOLE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND IS NOW SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. A WEAKENING SQUALL LINE PRECEDES THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING SLOWLY EAST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THERE HAVE BEEN A SERIES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THIS LINE. FINALLY...OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW ROGUE CELLS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AND THRIVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TENNESSEE INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE CWA AND COULD THREATEN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THESE STORMS AND THE LINE TO THE WEST HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE A COLD POOL TO HELP THEM SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IN OUR LOW INSTABILITY BUT HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF SUPERIOR ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE WIND FIELD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS... WX AND WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TIMING OF THE FINER SCALE FEATURES OF THE LARGER SFC SYSTEM...AS WELL AS TWEAKED TD AND T FROM THE LATEST OBS AND THEIR TRENDS. THE THREAT OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY AS THE REMAINS OF THE WARM FRONT MOVE FURTHER EAST PLACING EAST KENTUCKY MORE CLEARLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE CONTINUED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GRIDS...TEXT PRODUCTS... ZONES AND LAKE WIND NPW. THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/ AS EXPECTED...THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN FALLING APART DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING CAUSED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS STAYED TOGETHER ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE THUNDER HAS STAYED WELL TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT THE DOWNSLOPING TO CONTINUE TO CREATE AN UNFAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT UNTIL IT TURNS MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING...IT CREATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PRODUCING SOME GRAVITY WAVES. THESE WAVES ARE REFLECTED TO THE SURFACE AND CREATES A NARROW ZONE OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THIS WILL BE OVER HARLAN AND LETCHER COUNTIES...HOWEVER THE CHANCES ARE SO REMOTE...THAT I HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WIND ADVISORIES AND WILL KEEP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE A DRY SLOT FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AND PRODUCING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. FOR TEMPS JUST NUDGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS MOS BLEND. .LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/ OVERALL...VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE 15.12Z GFS AND GEM GENERALLY SUPPORTING THE 00Z ECMWF THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETTING UP NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD WHILE FURTHER UPSTREAM A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST. A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITH IN THE ZONAL FLOW RIDING ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING TROF AND BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS IS GENERATING SOME SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH GOOD SHEAR PROFILES THRU THE LOWER LEVELS...AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THESE PARAMETERS AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT APPEARS TO BE ON THE HORIZON. AGAIN...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE BEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY TIME FRAME...CENTERED AROUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE A MODERATING TREND THRU WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS AND LOWS GENERALLY RUNNING AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL /FOR MID APRIL...UPPER 60S AND UPPER 40S/ WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO END THE WEEK BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED A COLD FRONT LAID OUT NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WAS MOVING EAST. RAIN AND LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DOWNSLOPE SE WINDS WERE KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY LOW VFR...DESPITE THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE PRECIP HAS BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH AT TIMES TO OVERCOME THE DRYING DOWNSLOPE INFLUENCE AND BRING LOCALIZED MVFR AND IFR. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE UNTIL DRIER AIR WORKS IN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IMPROVEMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z. HOWEVER...ANY IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED. ANY AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST FROM 17Z TO 00Z. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...GUST 20-30 KNOTS AT TIMES. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044- 050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && SHORT TERM...JJ/GREIF LONG TERM....MB AVIATION...HAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1055 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-170600- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 1055 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A HAZARD FOR BOATERS ON AREA LAKES THROUGH THE NIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A HAZARD FOR BOATERS ON AREA LAKES ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WIND DAMAGE OVERNIGHT. JJ/GREIF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 212 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 KYZ086>088-112-114>117-160700- BREATHITT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-KNOX-HARLAN-BELL- 212 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2011 ...LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS CONTAINING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM EDT SATURDAY MORNING... SOUTHWESTERN BREATHITT... SOUTHERN OWSLEY... WESTERN PERRY... CLAY... LESLIE... EASTERN KNOX... WESTERN HARLAN AND BELL. AT 210 AM EDT...A LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALGER TO BRIGHTSHADE TO BINGHAMTOWN...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF MANCHESTER TO 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANCHESTER TO MIDDLESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THE AFFECTED COUNTIES SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AS THIS LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY. ABE
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 66 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:13 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
There were 6 to 8 inches of water over the road at the junction of Hwys 290 and 30.
There was 6 inches of water flowing over highway 119 in Wallins Creek.
There was a foot of water flowing over both lanes of Hwy 38 in Evarts.
The road was impassable near the intersection of Hwy 2031 and KY Hwy 40.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, April 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 296166, 296167, 296168, 296169.