On April 12th, a slow exiting low pressure system produced constant rainfall over the northern portion of the CWA as the system was slow to exit the area. The low pressure center eventually moved off to the north but not before 2 flash flood warnings needed to be issued.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
On April 12th, a slow exiting low pressure system produced constant rainfall over the northern portion of the CWA as the system was slow to exit the area. The low pressure center eventually moved off to the north but not before 2 flash flood warnings needed to be issued.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 12, 2:23 AM EST, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 323 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011 .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED THE INITIAL BAND OF RAINFALL HAS MOVED ON OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THIS POINT IN A DRY SLOT. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL KY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE AREA TOWARD 12Z AND GRADUALLY MOVE NE INTO WV BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA...RATHER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN RETURN TO THE REGION AND HAVE OPTED TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR TODAY...WITH THE CATEGORICAL POPS LINGERING THE LONGEST IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME...BASED ON THE UPSTREAM RAINFALL AND RAINFALL RATES THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER CENTRAL KY AND THE GROUND NO SATURATED OVER PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA...WILL HOLD ONTO THE FLOOD WATCH. IF RAINFALL RATES...ESPECIALLY THREE TO SIX HOUR TOTALS APPROACH WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO THE WEST... SOME SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD CERTAINLY RISE TO BANKFULL OR HIGHER. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING BY AND PLENTY OF RAIN AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TEMPS AROUND 12Z SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO HIGHS FOR THE ENTIRE DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING STEADY IF NOT FALLING A FEW DEGREES BY LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW AREAS IN THE SW MAY EXPERIENCE CLOUDS THINNING OUT ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF RISE THEN. OVERALL...THE MODEL HANG ONTO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND DESPITE HEIGHT INCREASES ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN THE MORE EASTERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE WV BORDER WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG OR FROST APPEARS HIGHER ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS. A MINOR RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLIT WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ON WED INTO WED NIGHT... MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED ON WED AND WITH THE SUNSHINE IT WILL FEEL SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. THE PATTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FAVORABLE FOR A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMP SPLIT ON WED NIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FROST COULD AGAIN BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE EAST THAT EXPERIENCE LESS CLEARING TONIGHT. .LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED. ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACT TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM...MUCH LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL...WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A PLEASANT THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ENTER THE PICTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER. GIVEN THE RECENT HISTORY OF THE ECMWF PERFORMING WELL ON TIMING...OPTING TO FOLLOW THE MODEL FAIRLY CLOSELY ONCE AGAIN. THUS...HAVE REMOVED ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND DELAYED THEM CONSIDERABLY ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WORKING INTO EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE TIME OF ARRIVAL...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...INSTABILITY (SURFACE OR MID LEVEL) DOES NOT APPEAR THAT IMPRESSIVE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS INVOLVED...I SUPPOSE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE VERY WET AT THIS POINT WITH THE MAIN FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. OBVIOUSLY...PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO THIS PAST STORM SYSTEM. A QUIETER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING FOR SUNDAY. GOING FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES. COULD BE SOME FROST QUESTIONS GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT VERY MARGINAL AT THIS POINT. A FAIRLY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. VERY WEAK FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS OF RIGHT NOW...SO POPS WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARM UP HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS WARMING TREND. && .AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/ AN AREA OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION IS GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...AND WILL SOON DEPART THE LAST TAF SITE...JKL. HOWEVER... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER FROM TIME TO TIME IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO WV THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THIS BEHIND THE EXITING MAIN BAND OF PRECIP...STEADIER PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 8Z AND 12Z. CIGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD MAINLY BE MVFR OR IFR...WITH IFR EXPECTED WITH THE SECOND BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP. CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES BACK TO MVFR. WESTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE CLEARING LATE IN THE PERIOD... BUT JKL SHOULD HANG ONTO MVFR THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...KAS AVIATION...JP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 434 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING... OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO... PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE... CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON... HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG... INEZ...PIKEVILLE 434 AM EDT TUE APR 12 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SLOW MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LEAD TO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OR FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY VALLEY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAIN AND ANY INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY. JP
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:14 UTC.
6 flash flood, 2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A creek was washing away one driveway. The report was from a CoCoRahs spotter.
KY 211s near US 60 closed due to flash flooding.
KY 11 closed near Fairview and Hwy 36 due to flash flooding.
A creek was out of its banks.
A fence was washed out at Easy Walker park. A tree brought power lines down on Hingston Pike. Multiple roads had water across them with one road closed.
Dry Creek road was closed due to flash flooding.
Rawlings Road was closed due to flash flooding.
There were multiple roads impacted by flooding across Rowan county. The hardest hit area was the Bluestone community.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, April 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 296128, 296131, 339597, 296157, 296161, 296158, 296159, 296164.