Tornadoes and Hail in Iowa, May 11, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
303 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEBRASKA AND IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ANTICIPATE THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT SURGES
NORTHWARD AND ANOTHER PV ANOMALY TRACKS FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF COLORADO. ALSO SEEING ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESIDE...AND DYNAMICS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL KEEP PUSHING TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. IN TERMS OF SEVERE STORMS...WHILE MUCAPE VALUES ARE DECENT
ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR
IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...BUT COULD
SEE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN TERMS OF LOWS...UPPER
40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA.  /JM

THURSDAY WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND IN THE
SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
LOOKS TO BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE COLD FRONT ALOFT/PV ANOMALY WILL
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS THE MAIN WAVE TO THE SOUTH REGROUPS AND
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BAND TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY TO
STORM LAKE...EXPECT A LITTLE SUNSHINE AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY LOCKED IN AROUND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN IOWA...A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY NEARBY...CAPES CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG JUST TO THE
SOUTH...BUT 0KM TO 6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30 KNOTS...ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. HIGHS RIGHT NOW EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN SOUTHERN IA TO AROUND 50 FROM HURON TO
CHAMBERLAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SEE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SLIDE
SOUTHEAST WITH CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOL AIR. EXPECT A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT SO STILL EXPECTING
CHILLY CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

A LARGE DUMBBELL LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXCEPTIONAL WITH THIS
COLD POOL ALOFT BUT LIKELY ENOUGH TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL HAVE
MAINLY 30 TO 40 POPS BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE IF CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE INCREASES. A VERY COOL DAY WITH NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
AND HIGH ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE COOL...BUT A LITTLE LESS
BREEZY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE STILL LINGERING AROUND
WILL NEED TO KEEP SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA...OTHERWISE
MOSTLY CLOUDY REMAINDER OF THE TIME. LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY
40 TO 45 WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

IN THE LATTER PERIODS(SUN/WED)...UPPER LEVEL LOW DUMBBELLS AROUND
SUNDAY THEN SHIFTS EAST BY MONDAY. THIS IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY WELL
AGREED UPON BY THE VARYING MODELS SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
THIS IDEA. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SLOWLY
MODIFY AND EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. SO MAINLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY EARLY. STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE HINTING FAIRLY STRONGLY AT HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S IN MOST
LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY...LOOKS MAINLY DRY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...THEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR AFTER
21Z AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SWATH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE INTERACTS WITH
A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ORIENTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA. WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION AND
POTENTIAL TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS AROUND 1.50 INCHES...A SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE...IF THE BOUNDARY STALLS IN ONE SPOT FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS. OVERALL...A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO GET ABOUT
0.75 INCHES TO 1.50 INCHES OF NEW RAINFALL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1157 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-121200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1157 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR...THEN EXPAND TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A LINE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF YANKTON TO SPENCER...AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE ALONG WITH WINDS TO 60 MPH.

FLOODING...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER THE AREA. AT THIS TIME RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM LESS THAN AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF...AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF HEAVIER
RAINFALL THAN THIS WERE TO DEVELOP OVER AN AREA...IT COULD CAUSE
A LOCAL FLOOD THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM IN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED AREA.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.