A 500 mb trough advancing east into Missouri aided the development of a large area of showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, a cold front was moving east across Missouri.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A 500 mb trough advancing east into Missouri aided the development of a large area of showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, a cold front was moving east across Missouri. The storms intercepted a moderately strong low level inflow of moist and unstable air. Locally heavy rainfall occurred.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 18, 1:39 PM CST, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 239 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011 .DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT. ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ALL SHOW SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT. WITH THE BRIEF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON EASILY PRODUCING CLOSE TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE...EXPECT ALL BUT FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS TO EASILY RECEIVE A WELCOME ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OVERNIGHT. HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LEADING TO DRY AND A LITTLE BIT WARMER CONDITIONS. MAV IS RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MET. PREFERRED THE COOLER MAV...AND WENT PRETTY CLOSE TO IT VALUES. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THIS WILL PUSH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO OUR DIRECTION. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL WITH THE FRONT...BUT WILL LEAVE THE 20 POPS WE HAVE GOING FOR CONSISTENCY AND SINCE A FRONT IS COMING THROUGH...WE COULD END UP SEEING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DESPITE THE LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE. PLUS...THE 00Z GEM MODEL SHOWS A DIFFERENT SCENARIO WHERE AN INVERTED TROUGH NOSING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PRECIPITATION...WHICH THEN GETS SHOVED EAST WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. HOWEVER THE 12Z RUN OF THE GEM SHOVES THE FRONT ON THROUGH BEFORE THE INVERTED TROUGH HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP. ACTUALLY...THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA. FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...YESTERDAY MODELS (THE ECMWF...GEM AND GFS) DEVELOPED A CUT OFF/CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ANYWHERE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 00Z GEM AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO STICK WITH THAT SOLUTION AND DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTH AND ROTATE IT DOWN OUR WAY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z/12Z GFS DEVELOPS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND MOVES IT EASTWARD AND NEVER AFFECTS OUR AREA. ALL IN ALL...MODELS AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE A TROUGH OF SOME FASHION OVER THE AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...STILL BELIEVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH WILL BE AND WHERE A CLOSED LOW POSSIBLY SETS UP AND IF IT TENDS TO LINGER SOMEWHERE IN OUR VICINITY. && .AVIATION... LOW CONFIDENCE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. NICE AREA OF SHRA/EMBEDDED THUNDER NOW IMPACTING KCGI. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS CURRENT BATCH OF PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. BEYOND THAT...CONTINUED WITH THE LOW CONFIDENCE VCSH/CB MENTION FOR MOST OF THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT LOWER CIGS MAY ARRIVE WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT ON MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THAT FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD...DID NOT GET FANCY AND LEFT THE VCSH/CB WORDING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && PUBLIC...RST/CW AVIATION...CW
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 433 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-191000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 433 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE QUAD STATE REGION ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MIGHT HAVE STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF KENTUCKY MONDAY EVENING. A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
The rain gage at the Evansville airport measured 1.15 inches in about 40 minutes, and 1.9 inches in a couple hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, September 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 343641.