Heavy Rain in Idaho, July 12, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
234 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGAN TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY UP
INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM LOWELL IDAHO TO SEELEY LAKE MONTANA. A THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS..SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS REGION. THE CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL COOL DOWN TO
ABOUT NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THEN A
WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONGER RANGE
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER COOL FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. CURRENT FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE COOLED
DOWN SOME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE TREND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG WITH HIGH MOISTURE AND HAS ALLOWED FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. KBTM AND KSMN WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MONTANA THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UNDER AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

NOTE: FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE LISTED BELOW.

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM....GIBSON
AVIATION...KITSMILLER