Drought in Hawaii, April 1 to 19, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU MAR 31 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS OVER THE
ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A WEATHER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST APPROACHES THE
STATE. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING LATE
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA
AT TIMES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS THROUGH REST OF THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THESE PASSING SHOWERS REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE...AS AIR MASS REMAINS STABLE OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE TRADE WINDS TO THE
STATE THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS THE ISLANDS CAN EXPECT THE TRADE WIND
WEATHER TO LAST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY.

CHANGES IN THE WEATHER ARE FORTHCOMING AS A LATE SEASON FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE STATE...PUSHING A WEAK RIDGE NEAR THE
ISLANDS. ISLAND WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE...WITH CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS FAVORING THE INTERIOR AREAS DURING AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION FROM THESE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED...AS AIR MASS OVER THE STATE
WILL REMAIN STABLE. LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES MAY BECOME MORE
PROMINENT UNDER THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC WIND REGIME.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS STILL EXHIBIT SOME DISAGREEMENTS UPON HOW THE
PENDING FRONT WILL EVOLVE ONCE IT REACHES THE ISLANDS...THOUGH THEY
ALL HINT SOME SORT OF SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE STATE.
HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH WILL BE IS STILL QUESTIONABLE AT TIME.
REGARDLESS...THE WEATHER WILL BECOME UNSETTLED AND WET FOR THE
ISLANDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. STILL EXPECT POSSIBLE LOCALLY
HEAVY SHOWERS...AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
STATE BEGINNING LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURF IS SLOWLY DECREASING TREND THIS EVENING AND DO EXPECT THE
SURF HEIGHT TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...SURF ALONG THE KONA COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL OF 8 FEET THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
ISLANDS WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH AS THE WEST NORTHWEST SWELL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR MOST
WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KONA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS
EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY.

&&

HUI