Drought in New Mexico, April 1 to 30, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT THU MAR 31 2011

.DISCUSSION...A STOUT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF
OVER THE LOWER CALIFORNIA COAST WITH H5 HEIGHTS SOARING UP TO 588
DECAMETERS. CONSEQUENTLY NEW MEXICO REMAINS TRAPPED WITHIN A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES HAVE NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE YESTERDAY/S READINGS AND NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES ARE NOT AS
STRONG EITHER. CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE ALSO THINNED OUT...AND
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUING TO RELAX. THIS SHOULD RE-INTRODUCE SOME TEMPERATURE
INVERSIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY FROM OVERNIGHT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

INTO FRIDAY THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
WITH WINDS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TURNING LIGHTER AND MORE
WESTERLY. RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE WILL MEAN WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL LOCALES WILL APPROACH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS...NAMELY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES. AND WHILE
THIS PATTERN WILL RENDER A WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW...BREEZES
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...GIVEN THE WEAKER MOMENTUM ALOFT.

THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL FLATTEN MORE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL EVEN BEGIN TURNING WEST SOUTHWEST BY
LATE SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWESTERN STATES. THE LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH WOULD STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MID
LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WOULD ALSO SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDS. THIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER UTILIZES STEEPER TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES. SUCH ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH HEIGHT FIELDS AND DOWNSLOPING ADIABATIC PROCESSES WILL RESULT
IN RECORD TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED OR EXCEEDED OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

INTO SUNDAY THE PICTURE BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED DUE TO POOR
CONTINUITY AMONG SOME MODELS AND UTTER DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN A FEW
MEMBERS. THE GFS WOULD SEEMINGLY FIT THE MOLD FOR SUCH A
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH PASSAGE DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER IT
HAS DRASTICALLY ALTERED ITS SOLUTIONS FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN CLOSING
OFF THE FEATURE OVER NEW MEXICO AT A MUCH SLOWER PACE THAN OTHER
MODELS. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PORTRAYS THE SYSTEM BEING MUCH
FARTHER EAST IN THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME IN CONTRAST TO THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND EVEN
SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF THE EUROPEAN AND DGEX FOR THIS PACKAGE.
REGARDLESS...THE MODELS ARE EACH ADVERTISING MUCH STRONGER
KINEMATIC FIELDS SUNDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT AND
A VERY DEEP LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW. ULTIMATELY IT WILL BE A
DREADFULLY WINDY AND DUSTY DAY WITH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ALMOST AS A SIDE NOTE TO THE WINDS...SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO BE ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EASTWARD INTO MONDAY. THE SOUTHWARD
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION WILL OBVIOUSLY DEPEND UPON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW FEATURE WITH A GFS TRACK INCREASING
THOSE ODDS. FOR NOW...THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECASTED TO
STAY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY SNEAKING
SOUTH.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE EXACT DETAILS OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND IT IS NOT MUCH HIGHER BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. THE
PATTERN DOES LOOK TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACCORDING TO HEMISPHERICAL
FORECAST PLOTS OF THE ACTIVE POLAR JET. AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW
IMPACTING THE STATE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
NORTHWESTERLY PERTURBATION.

52

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. 50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SET TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LOWER HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT MOST AREAS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTIER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLACK UP A BIT THIS
EVENING. A RETURN TO SOME BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

STILL LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE
WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT AND
LOW HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY WILL BE THE STRONGER WIND DAY
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES MOST AREAS. MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY VARIED ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSION ACROSS THE STATE...ESPECIALLY
AS IT PERTAINS TO THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE
HEDGED DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. MOST CRITICAL CONDITIONS...PERHAPS EVEN
EXTREME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. WATCH REMAINS VALID FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
BUT LOOK FOR AN UPGRADE ON FRIDAY.

WETTING PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE DEBATE WITHIN THE MODELS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
BEST BET WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN PEGGING THAT AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. GENERALLY 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AS A
RESULT...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE DRY SLOTTING THERE BUT DEPENDENT
ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
DAY.

RIDGING STILL ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS MEANS A WARM UP WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
AFFECTS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SLACKEN UP HOWEVER ACROSS THE STATE BY
THIS TIME PERIOD. AT LEAST NOT AS STRONG AS OBSERVED THE PRECEDING
DAYS.

DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WEATHER MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
RESOLVING A WEAK SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE SURFACE WIND FLOW
WOULD INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. POSSIBLE VIRGA AND OR HIGH
LEVEL SHOWERS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE PASSAGE AS THE MAIN TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US. MODELS HAVE VARIED WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
PASSAGE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
DURING THIS PERIOD.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  35  72  38  80 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  26  65  27  73 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  23  71  23  77 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  27  74  29  77 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  28  72  32  75 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  26  76  27  79 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  28  76  32  79 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  39  85  38  84 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  25  62  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  73  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  34  72  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  25  68  28  73 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  22  61  24  64 /   5   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  21  64  23  64 /   5   0   0   0
TAOS............................  27  72  30  76 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  32  73  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  31  76  32  81 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  34  73  36  79 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  36  75  35  81 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  76  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  44  78  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  38  79  41  83 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  40  78  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  80  40  84 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  39  78  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  42  84  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  31  74  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  76  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  75  31  80 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  37  72  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  76  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  39  80  42  82 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  44  74  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  31  73  31  80 /   5   0   0   0
RATON...........................  33  77  31  83 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  35  77  37  83 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  37  77  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  40  74  42  85 /   5   0   0   0
ROY.............................  38  74  40  84 /   5   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  39  78  42  90 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  38  80  42  90 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  39  81  42  92 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  41  80  45  89 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  38  81  44  90 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  44  83  45  92 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  47  86  45  96 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  44  81  44  88 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  37  79  35  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103>105-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2011

NMZ501>540-011200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES
COUNTY-
600 AM MDT THU MAR 31 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH...COMBINED WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES...WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS...SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WINDS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING DUST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO NEAR TUCUMCARI.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.