Heavy Snow in Georgia, January 9 to 10, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
949 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE MONDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MESOSCALE SNOW BAND HAS SET UP JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CWFA
GENERALLY ALONG I-20. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO THE CWFA
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME VIRGA AS THE BAND MOVES IN MOISTENING THE AIR
BELOW...THEN MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A SERIES OF THESE BANDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LIGHT SNOW FILLING IN BETWEEN. PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
EAST OF I-26 THRU MIDNIGHT...THEN SPREAD EAST OVER ALL THE CWFA BY
DAYBREAK. THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE WEST OF I-26 WITH AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES. EAST OF I-26 SHOULD BE LIMITED FROM A TRACE
TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE INTERSTATE. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED
RIGHT NOW FOR MONDAY AS THE SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY BANDS...MOVES
ACROSS ALL THE CWFA PRODUCING STORM TOTALS FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. THE
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN STILL ON TRACK AS WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM TX TO MO TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE WAVE TRACKS EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. CIRRUS OUT AHEAD OF
THE WAVE WILL REACH OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY BY LATE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDING SUPPORT ALL SNOW...AS
MOISTURE EXTENDS TO -10 DEGREES CENTIGRADE...AND THERE IS NO WARM
NOSE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST...CROSSING UPSTATE SC OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT
BY DAYBREAK. NCEP QPF AND MODEL THICKNESS SUPPORT WARNING CRITERIA
SNOW SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 26 BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. ALTHOUGH MANY
AREAS NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 26 WILL LACK NAY OROGRAPHIC
CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT...ANY APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA WILL
ACCUMULATE BY MIDDAY MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RUN
AROUND FIVE DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER LIMITS RADIATIONAL
COOLING. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP MAXIMUMS TEMPERATURES
ALMOST 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL....AND GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...THE GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY STILL ON TRACK
WITH OUR EARLIER THINKING WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF OUR
STORM WHICH WILL BE ONGOING AT MIDDAY MONDAY. A WARM NOSE WILL
PROGRESS NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT WILL FORCE A CHANGEOVER
TO SLEET OR A SNOW-SLEET MIX MORE OR LESS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85. NORTH OF THAT LINE...IT SHOULD REMAIN SNOW FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. AT THE SAME TIME...MID LEVEL DRYING WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE EXTENT THAT ICE NUCLEI WILL NO LONGER BE
ACTIVE...SO FROM A CLOUD MICROPHYSICS STANDPOINT THE PRODUCTION OF
PRECIP WILL FAVOR SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS THAT WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO CHANGE INTO SNOW CRYSTALS. THE MODELS SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AT LOW LEVELS WHERE A WARM NOSE EXISTS AND
SOUNDING TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO 3 DEG C RANGE FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS IDEAL FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE BETTER
PART OF MONDAY NIGHT...OR UNTIL THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY...QPF MONDAY NIGHT IS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...SO WE SHOULD ONLY EXPECT A GLAZE OF MAYBE UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH ON TOP OF WHATEVER SNOW DEPTH WE ACCUMULATE DURING MONDAY. WE
SHOULD NOT HAVE A MECHANISM TO FUNNEL MORE DRY AIR IN AT THE
SURFACE...SO THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF ACCRUAL. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY DURING THIS PERIOD AND MIGHT RISE A FEW DEGREES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER A CONSIDERATION OF THE EXPECTED TOTAL SNOW
AND THE LIGHT GLAZE ON TOP OF THAT...THINK IT BEST TO UPGRADE THE
AREAS NORTH OF I-40 TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW END TO PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WILL PROBABLY MAKE A TRANSITION TO RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS AS TEMPS EKE OUT ABOVE 32F.
MEANWHILE...THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
IN THE DAY WHICH WILL FORCE A CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW OVER THE MTNS
WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO THE VALLEYS BY AROUND SUNSET.

FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NW FLOW SNOW EVENT
ALONG THE TN BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SREF POP WAS
FAVORED THERE...WHICH REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE TO LIKELY
POP. TEMPS WERE KEPT BELOW GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS WE MELT OFF THE
SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION FROM THE WINTER STORM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SUN...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN DECENT AGREEEMENT ON THE
UPPER PATTERN...DEPICTING QUASI-ZONAL RIDGE-TROF FLOW ACRS THE
CONUS. A VORTEX PERSISTING IN ERN CANADA WILL WOBBLE SOUTH INTO THE
GREAT LAKES NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A LOW PRES SYSTEM PUSHING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SLGT
CHC TO LOW-END CHC POPS BEGIN TO ENTER THE MTNS FROM THE WEST AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA ON SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO REBOUND...AS MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY.
HAVE TEMPS 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE WED NGT THRU
FRI...THEN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRI NGT AND SAT. MIN TEMPS DIP
BELOW FREEZING ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA SAT NGT...BUT KEEP POPS LOW END
TO AVOID WINTRY PRECIP...AS NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW/ICE
WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT...AS TEMPS REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT/KHKY...LIGHT NE WINDS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE EVENING. SNOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW NEAR 9Z BUT WILL
ONLY BE LIGHT WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS. AROUND 12Z SNOW WILL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS REACH LOW
MVFR BY MID-MORNING WITH IFR BY NOON. KEEP THINGS IFR FOR NOW...BUT
LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SLEET
COULD MIX IN BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY...WITH LOW END GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

AT KAVL/KGMU/KGSP/KAND...LIGHT N TO NE WINDS AND MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING. SNOW WILL MOVE IN AROUND 6Z BUT WILL
BE LIGHT WITH LOW VFR CONDITIONS. AROUND 9Z SNOW WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY WITH VFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPING. CONDITIONS REACH LOW MVFR
NEAR 11Z WITH IFR BY 15Z. LIFR OR EVEN VLIFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SLEET WILL MIX IN BY MID AFTERNOON CHANGING TO
FZRA AT KAND BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS CHANGE COULD OCCUR
ELSEWHERE BEFORE ENDING...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASE IN SPEED BY DAYBREAK AND CONTINUE THRU THE DAY. LOW END
GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE SC SITES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NITE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...EXCEPT OCNL MVFR
CIGS IN -SN AT KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>508.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NCZ051>053-058-
     059-062>065-509-510.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NCZ033-048>050.
SC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST TUESDAY FOR
     SCZ008-009-014.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ001>007-
     010>013-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ053-059-062>065-509-510-SCZ001>007-
010>013-019-102045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-BUNCOMBE-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
GREENWOOD-
345 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>508-SCZ008-009-014-102045-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-CHEROKEE-YORK-CHESTER-
345 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO NOON EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ051-052-058-102045-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
345 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>050-102045-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
345 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.