Hail in Georgia, April 25, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH GEORGIA CONVECTION IS BECOMING
QUITE ACTIVE. POPS WILL BE INCREASED TO SOLID CHANCE ACROSS THE
GA/SC MTNS...AS WELL AS THE SW NC MTNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. PER SPC MESOANALYSIS...INSTABILITY DROPS OFF QUITE A BIT
FROM THE LOWER SC PIEDMONT...NORTHEAST INTO THE NC PIEDMONT...AND
INDEED THE CU FIELD IS PRETTY FLAT IN THESE AREAS...SO POPS WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN SLIGHT CHANCE HERE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 230 PM...RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RUNNING FROM THE FL PANHANDLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. LATEST CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
BAND OF 2000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS CENTRAL GA/UPSTATE OF SC EXTENDING
INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NC. ISO TO SCT TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN
THE DISTURBANCE AND GREATER INSTABILITY. NEAR TERM MODELS SUPPORT
THIS PATTERN INTO THE EVENING...PLACING THE AREA OF GREATEST TSRA
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND 1 IN DIAMETER
HAIL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...LLVL SOUTH WINDS WILL PUSH MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR
ACROSS THE MTNS. I WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION CHC POPS ACROSS THE
MTNS...AND SCHC EAST. COOLING BL WILL LOWER STRATUS OVER THE CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. STEADY SOUTH WINDS AND THICK OVERCAST WILL RESULT
IN VERY MILD TEMPS WITH U50S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID 60S EAST.

TUESDAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY MOIST PROFILE FROM
THE SFC TO THE TROPOPAUSE...WITH PWS AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND K-INDEX
IN THE U30S. IN FACT...THE LFC ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 3 TO 4 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WRF AND NAM INDICATE THAT A
RESIDUAL COOL POOL FROM A OLD MCS...CURRENTLY OVER THE
ARKLATX...WILL LIKELY REACH THE CWA TOMORROW MORNING. UNSTABLE
AIR...ONGOING UPSLOPE...DEEP MOISTURE...AND SFC BASED LIFTING
MECHANISM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN EXPANDING COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG VEERING LLVL WIND PROFILES SHOULD
ALLOW A FEW STRONG TO SVR CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO FORM OVER THE
CWA...LIKELY EAST OF MORNING STRATUS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE SVR POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. IN ADDITION...THE WIND PROFILES AND
COOL POOL CONFIGURATION MAY YIELD AREAS OF TRAINING...ENHANCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. HIGH WILL RANGE LARGELY 5 TO 10
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MONDAY...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF...MOVG AROUND AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE W GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT
AND SWING ACROSS THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE CWA WED. UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH MOIST S FLOW
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. STRONG SLY UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR IN INITIATING SHWRS...ESP ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVG. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
IN QUICKLY WED AFTN-EVE WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60KT AND CAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG. STRONG TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT. THE FRONT MOVES THRU THE AREA QUICKLY
THU WITH MOST PRECIP E OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTN. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES E TO THE COAST...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. WITH
LOWER THKNS VALUES AND COOLER AIR MOVG IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER THU AFTN BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM MONDAY...MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS PRETTY QUIET.
THE TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND A PROMINENT
UPPER RIDGE WILL ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN STARTING ON
FRIDAY AND WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD
FRONT...AND LIKELY THE NEXT ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR PRECIP...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST SOMETIME ON MONDAY THOUGH AT THIS
POINT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IS POOR. TEMPERATURES WILL
FEATURE A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS RISE UNDER
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT TO BKN VFR CU WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN THINNING DURING THE EVENING.
CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS LOOK HIGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT LLVL
INVERSION WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF
MVFR STRATUS AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE BL COOLS OVERNIGHT...THE BL
WILL DECREASE AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO IFR RANGE. LOW CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN PAST SUNRISE...EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING
AND VFR BY MID DAY. A STEADY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE ACRS THE FA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
OVER THE MTNS THROUGH THIS EVENING...COVERAGE EXPANDING EAST LATE
TONIGHT. SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN UNTIL 19Z ACROSS
KAND...KGMU...KGSP. SCT TO BKN VFR CU WILL REMAIN OVER THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...THEN THINNING DURING THE
EVENING. I WILL MENTION CB FOR KAND AND KAVL THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE PASS OVER THE REGION. CHANCES FOR IFR CONDITIONS LOOK
HIGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT LLVL INVERSION WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION...PROMOTING THE FORMATION OF MVFR STRATUS AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS
THE BL COOLS OVERNIGHT...THE BL WILL DECREASE AND CEILINGS WILL
LOWER INTO IFR RANGE. LOW CEILINGS WILL REMAIN PAST
SUNRISE...EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR BY MID MORNING AND VFR BY MID
DAY. A STEADY SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU
LATE WED...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM
THE WEST WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068-
069-501>510-SCZ001>008-010-261930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-
YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
326 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND
HAIL ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

AN EVEN GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR WIND
DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GAZ029-NCZ036-037-057-070>072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-261930-
ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
326 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AN EVEN GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS LINE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
354 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

SCZ004-010-252045-
ANDERSON-GREATER OCONEE-
354 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE AND WESTERN
ANDERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 353 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAIR PLAY...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF HARTWELL...
MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3449 8290 3447 8301 3451 8308 3452 8309
      3467 8308 3467 8307 3464 8284 3463 8285
      3462 8284 3446 8286

RWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 PM EDT MON APR 25 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             3 N FAIR PLAY           34.55N 82.99W
04/25/2011  E1.00 INCH       OCONEE             SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ON MISTY ACRES DR REPORTED LOTS OF DIME SIZE
            HAIL...WITH SOME STONES AS LARGE AS QUARTERS

&&

LANE