Florida, 2011

Wildfire in Florida, March 20, 2011

March 20, 2011 · NWS JAX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A brush fire developed and caused some homes to be evacuated.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.

A brush fire developed and caused some homes to be evacuated.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 20, 2:03 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 20, 2:03 PM EST, 1 hour 57 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
303 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

...WARM WITH VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...WEDGE HAVE HIGH PRES HAS MADE ITS WAY DOWN INTO NE FL
AND SE GA WITH PREVAILING ELY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS ARE
15-20 MPH NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS WITH 10-15 MPH INLAND. PLENTY OF
LLVL MOISTURE PRODUCING SCT-BKN CU FIELD...MOST PREVALENT FROM THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND OVER SECTIONS OF SE GA. ISOLD SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED BUT REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE
TO NO PRECIP ACCUMULATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. TEMPS HAVE
MANAGED THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO THE MID 70S NEAR THE COAST.
INSTABILITY FIELDS SHOW MLCAPES OF ~700-1000 J OVER INLAND AREAS
BUT SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP ANY DEEPER CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM.

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS INITIALLY N OF THE AREA WILL
SHIFT SWD PRODUCING LIGHTER WINDS AND SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY LATE. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S EXPECTED.

MONDAY...SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD
RESULTING IN A SELY FLOW AND MORE SUBSIDENCE. TEMPS EXPECTED TO
REACH LOWER 80S MOST AREAS...COOLER NEAR THE COAST.

MON NIGHT...STACKED HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
AGAIN PROMOTE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONSENSUS FORECAST SUGGESTS
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

TUESDAY...AFTER FOG DISSIPATES...ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE. LLVL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE SW AND W...BUT LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
E COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TUE NIGHT INTO WED...STACKED HIGH
PRES FCST TO GET SUPPRESSED SWD TOWARD S AND CENTRAL FL AS MID-UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ASSOCD SFC FRONT OVER CENTRAL
CONUS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY LATE WED. STRONGER WLY FLOW AND
CONTD WARMING TREND EXPECTED MID 80S EXPECTED FOR WED HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...THU-SUN.
MODELS ARE INITIALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MEAN MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS THU WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EWD THROUGH FRI. ASSOCD SFC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
ON THU WITH LITTLE UPPER FORCING AND MOISTURE SO POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL (I.E. AOB 20%). THE FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN
THE FL PENINSULA WITH LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE EXCEPT FOR A WIND
SHIFT. BY FRI...THE GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST TO BUILD HEIGHTS
OVER THE AREA FRI-SAT AS IT BUILDS A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW THE NEXT FRONT TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. TEMPS ON THU AND FRI WILL BE HELD
CLOSE TO NORMAL DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE SAT AND SUN TEMPS SHOULD EASILY MANAGE TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE AREA. EXCEPT FOR
SMALL POP ON THU...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FRI-SUN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...
BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG LOW CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO HANG AROUND.
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO KEEP SOME CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
EVENING. VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT...CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH IT JUST
YET.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES WILL TURN
TO THE EAST AND DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN AVERAGE 10 KNOTS OR LESS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD. IN THE MEANTIME...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FOR LINGERING
HIGH SEAS. BUOY 41012 IS NOW REPORTING SEAS OF 7.5 FT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 6 TO 8 FT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE ON
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES WILL APPROACH 35 PERCENT ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW AND THEN AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. HEADLINES DO NO APPEAR LIKELY AS DURATIONS WILL NOT BE
MET AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.COASTAL IMPACTS...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES UP TO ABOUT
A FOOT HIGHER THAN THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR A
POTENTIAL HALF FOOT DEPARTURE WHICH IS BASED ON UPSTREAM HIGH
TIDES FROM THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING OF AT LEAST A HALF FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS. THUS NO
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  82  53  85 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  56  74  57  80 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  53  80  53  84 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  59  74  56  79 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  54  82  50  84 /  10  10  10   0
OCF  55  83  50  84 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

SHASHY/SHULER/PRESNALL
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 20, 9:35 AM EST, 6 hours 25 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1035 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-210945-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1035 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL ELEVATE THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND EAST SWELLS...AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK IS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST NEXT WEEK CREATING AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI/SHASHY

Event by event

1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, St. Johns

When
March 20, 4:00 PM EST to 9:00 PM EST
Where
St. Johns forecast zone
Reported by
Broadcast Media

A brush fire developed at a subdivision off of Greenbriar Road and burned about 20 to 25 acres. Some homes were evacuated as a precaution. No structure were lost. The fire was 90 percent contained by 10 pm EDT and evacuees were allowed to return home. The fire location was approximately at 30.07 N, 81.65 W and was approximated based on radar imagery.

What these are

Wildfire
A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Florida in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, March 2011

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 281812.