The combination of melting snow and some rainfall helped to push some southeast Minnesota rivers out of their banks during the latter half of the month.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ARX wrote it up.
The combination of melting snow and some rainfall helped to push some southeast Minnesota rivers out of their banks during the latter half of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS La Crosse, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 20, 2:12 AM CST, 11 hours 18 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 312 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011 .SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN COLORADO. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN WISCONSIN BACK INTO WESTERN IOWA. AS EXPECTED...THE RAIN HAS DEVELOPED TONIGHT IN THE STRONG ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW OUT TO THE WEST. THE 20.00Z MODELS SUGGEST THIS ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 4 TO 10 UBAR/S ON THE 295K SURFACE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT THEN DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE THERE WILL BE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT ONCE THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ENDS THAT THE RAIN WILL BE OVER. THE GFS AND THE 19.12Z ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD COVERAGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM TO MAKE THE MOST SENSE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS NOW MOVING ACROSS WYOMING SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS TRACK...THE GFS SHOWS OVER 40 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER COMING RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE ON THE STRONG SIDE...BUT STILL EXPECTING A GOOD SHOT OF PV ADVECTION TO COME THROUGH. WITH DECENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INTO THE REGION...THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WIDE DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. OVERALL...RAISED THE RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FOR TODAY TO HAVE 80 TO 90 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THEN FOR THE EARLY EVENING...KEPT THE RAIN CHANCES AT 50 TO 80 PERCENT FROM WEST TO EAST BUT LOWERED THOSE ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AND THEN DROPPED THE RAIN CHANCES ENTIRELY AFTER 06Z. THE CHANCES FOR MORE PRECIPITATION QUICKLY RETURN TO REGION STARTING MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL START TO LIFT BACK TOWARD THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION TO BEGIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 4 TO 9 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE EXPECTED ON THE 295K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THIS SURFACE WILL BE RIGHT INTO THE AREA...SO EXPECTING MORE PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT OVER THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUESDAY RAISED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP TO 70 FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF I94. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA TO LIKELY ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTH...BUT CONCERNED THAT WITH TEMPERATURES MAY NOT FALL THAT MUCH WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WINDS...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW. THE STRONG ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE AIDED BY SOME DYNAMICAL FORCING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEVERAL MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON THE PATH OF THE LOW WHICH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE PRECIPITATION TYPES. THE 20.00Z NAM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK GIVING THERMAL PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW/SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I90 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THERMAL PROFILES THAT SUPPORT ONLY RAIN EXCEPT FOR SOME SLEET NORTH OF I94. THE SLEET SIGNAL HAS BEEN IN THE MODELS FOR A FEW RUNS NOW...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THIS TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I90. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS WILL THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN BACK OVER THE AREA WITH A RATHER LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO CONTINUE...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE TYPES TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW AS THE NEW 20.00Z ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE COME IN WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION CLOSER TO WHAT THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING. THE PRECIPITATION THEN LOOKS TO WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND BRINGS SOME UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE REGION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IF FARTHER NORTH THAN THE EITHER THE ECMWF OR 20.00Z GEM WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION AND DRAGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. SIMILAR DIFFERENCES OVER THE UP COMING WEEKEND BUT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. DUE TO THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. && .AVIATION... PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. SOME INSTABILITY ALSO PRESENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TIME FOR STORMS WOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MVFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SWEPT EAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES BY THIS EVENING IN THE 00-01Z TIME FRAME. LINGERING MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS SHOW SOME INDICATIONS OF THE CLOUDS SCOURING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO GO VFR. WILL REASSESS THIS FOR THE 20.12Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .HYDROLOGY... WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AMOUNTS THERE COULD BE BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS AND ONE INCH. MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETWEEN THREE QUARTERS AND AN INCH AND A HALF WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALL THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. FOR A MORE COMPLETE EXPLANATION OF THE ONGOING HYDROLOGY CONCERNS AND FORECASTS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT /MKERVSARX FGUS83/...HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK /MKEESFARX FGUS73/ AND FLOOD STATEMENT /MKEFLSARX WGUS83/ PRODUCTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && SHORT/LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...DAS
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 455 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061-211100- ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE- FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE- MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON- WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA- 455 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...KEEPING RIVER LEVELS ON THE RISE AT MANY LOCATIONS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RAINFALL...ALONG WITH LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. WITH ENOUGH ADDED RUNOFF...STREAMS AND RIVER COULD REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THOSE WITH RIVER INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THIS NEXT WEEK. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE REGION LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...BUT SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN SNOW AND SLEET WOULD BE MORE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A THREAT OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD ADD TO THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND IMPACTS ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...SOME SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NO ACTION IS NEEDED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO WEBINAR IS SCHEDULED. DAS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The combination of rainfall and melting snow pushed Turtle Creek near Austin out of its banks. The creek exceeded the flood stage from the 20th into the 21st and again from the 23rd into the 24th. The highest crest was over a foot above the flood stage at 11.76 feet on the 23rd.
The combination of rainfall and melting snow pushed the Whitewater River in the Whitewater State Park out of its banks. The river exceeded the flood stage for a period from the 22nd into the 23rd. The river crested less than a half foot over the flood stage at 13.88 feet.
The combination of rainfall and melting snow pushed the Cedar River at Lansing out of its banks. The river exceeded the flood stage for a short period on the 23rd. The river crested just over the flood stage at 18.02 feet.
The combination of rainfall and melting snow pushed the Zumbro River at Zumbro Falls out of its banks. The river exceeded the flood stage from the 23rd into the 24th. The river crested at less than a foot over the flood stage at 18.69 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, March 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 290552, 290564, 290548, 290582.