Colorado, 2011

Winter Storm in Colorado, May 10 to 11, 2011

May 10 to 11, 2011 · NWS PUB · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

A strong Pacific cold front moving across Colorado produced up to 11 inches of late season snow. More than 8 inches of snow fell in the Mosquito and eastern Sawatch Ranges, and on Pikes Peak.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.

A strong Pacific cold front moving across Colorado produced up to 11 inches of late season snow. More than 8 inches of snow fell in the Mosquito and eastern Sawatch Ranges, and on Pikes Peak.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 2:40 PM MST, 6 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 10, 2:40 PM MST, 6 hours 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
340 PM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

...HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM ARIZONA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL COMBINE WITH A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT TO BRING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS  WILL RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWS AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH INITIALLY...BUT WILL
LOWER DURING THE EVENT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE PLAINS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY OVERNIGHT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DOWNSLOPE
FLOW SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN THE CITY OF COLORADO SPRINGS...AND SOUTH TO NEAR PUEBLO
DURING THE TIME THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION TO
THE SOUTH. SUBSTANTIAL SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE SURFACE A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE DAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
WITH STRONG WINDS AND A COLD FRONT STALLING TO THE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...A FEW VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. -JKH

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

WRAPPED UP SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES BY THURS MORNING.  STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING AND
TRACK...WITH ECMWF AND NAM SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  ECMWF IS ALSO A TAD
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.  SHOULD STILL BE SEEING
SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ESP
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE AXIS OF
BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE SITUATED ALONG NW QUAD OF UPPER LOW.
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY...WHERE ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
GRASSY SURFACES WED EVENING. AS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED INTO WESTERN KS BY
00Z...AND CONSEQUENTLY AXIS OF BEST INSTABILITY/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRANSITION FROM PORTIONS OF SE CO...INTO WEST CENTRAL/NW KS.
HOWEVER...18Z RUN HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC LOW...SO ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL STILL BE SOME ISOLATED
LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CO (PARTICULARLY KIOWA
COUNTY) EARLY WED EVENING...ESP IF SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN ANY FURTHER.
HOWEVER...EVENT SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERY EVENT BY EARLY EVENING UNDER THE TROWAL. AFTER
06Z...WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WILL HELP SHUT DOWN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE SE MTS AND MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. SOME AREAS COULD COME
CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE...BUT WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SOME MIXING DUE TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS...DON'T THINK THE DURATION WILL BE
LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS.

COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THURS...WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.  HAVE MAINTAINED SOME LOW ISOLATED
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EASTERN MTS AS WELL...WHERE SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE/NE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED
-SHRA.  THESE SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND SETS IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GFS LATCHES ON TO UPPER LOW FROM CANADA AND TRIES TO DUMBBELL IT BACK
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT...WHICH SENDS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY SAT AFTN.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST
ANOTHER UPSWING IN PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY/SAT NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
COOL DOWN.  ECMWF SEEMS MORE REASONABLE IN KEEPING THE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. COOLED OFF MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SAT...BUT DIDN/T
GO AS COOL AS LATEST GFS SUGGESTS.

THE NEXT UPPER TROF DROPS INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT TUESDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY HELP BRING THE DRYLINE BACK WESTWARD BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINAL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT EXPECTED AT KCOS AROUND 04Z/WED AND 08Z/WED AT KPUB.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT.  SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND KALS DURING THE
MORNING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED VICINITY KCOS AND KALS AFTER 06Z/WED.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ224-226>237.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR COZ059-061>063-066-068-072-074>076-078-079-081.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ058-060-073-080-082.

&&

51/31
Hazardous weather outlook, May 10, 9:56 AM MST, 11 hours 4 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1056 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-111300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1056 AM MDT TUE MAY 10 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE EASTERN PLAINS. WIDESPREAD WIND
GUSTS OF 30 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND DRY
FUELS TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BY TOMORROW
MORNING..ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.  SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL LIKELY BE FALLING ACROSS MOST OF NOT
ALL OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL ALSO LIKELY FALL
AT ELEVATIONS DOWN TO 6000 FEET...BUT WILL START TO ACCUMULATE AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING
SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WET MOUNTAINS...ALL OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ABOVE 8000 FEET...AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PIKES PEAK.

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY WILL ALSO LIKELY
SEE SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NEARLY ALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. IF THE SNOW IS HEAVY...IT MAY CAUSE
ROADWAYS TO BECOME SLUSHY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. COUNTIES WHICH WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE KIOWA...BENT AND
PROWERS COUNTIES. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR...A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. SMALL HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

51/31

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Storm, Eastern Lake County / Western Mosquito Range Above 11000 Ft

When
May 10, 9:00 PM MST to May 11, 11:00 PM MST
Where
Eastern Lake County / Western Mosquito Range Above 11000 Ft forecast zone
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
39.202, -106.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Storm, Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Ft

When
May 10, 9:00 PM MST to May 11, 11:00 PM MST
Where
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Ft forecast zone
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
38.677, -106.274 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Storm, Pikes Peak Above 11000 Ft

When
May 10, 11:00 PM MST to May 11, 11:00 PM MST
Where
Pikes Peak Above 11000 Ft forecast zone
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
38.857, -104.844 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Winter Storm
A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Colorado in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, May 2011

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 316702, 316703, 316704.