Wildfire in Colorado, March 23, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
351 PM MDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SHORT TERM...
...

(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)

...MORE FIRE DANGER TOMORROW...
...SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVR THE N
PLAINS. WINDS SHOULD STAY UPSLOPE THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THE WINDS THOUGH...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

POPS WILL REMAIN NIL TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH N
CO BEGINNING THU MORNING...AND THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SCT TO NMRS
SHSN FOR THE CONTDVD PARTICULARLY MID DAY ON THU. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES BY THU NIGHT.
IT WILL REMAIN DRY OVR THE PLAINS AND WITH UPPER WINDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MIXING SHOULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS BY MID
AFTERNOON. WILL GO AHEAD AND CONVERT OUR FIRE WX WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING...BUT WILL MOVE UP THE START TIME A COUPLE HOURS AS IT
APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL NOT GET STRONG UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT THE ERN MOST COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING...AS IT
APPEARS THAT THE DRY LINE SHOULD AT LEAST FALL WEST OF ERN
KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION LATE THU AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE...BUT
PROBABILITY LOOKS PRETTY LOW...AND INSTABILITY NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY MENTION OF TS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A
VERY SLIGHT (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE BORDER
COUNTIES LATE THU AFTERNOON.

TEMP-WISE...GUIDANCE LOOKED ON THE COLD SIDE TONIGHT...IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS DEVELOPING...SO HAVE
KEPT THINGS A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. THU...THERE IS A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN NAM VS GFS BASED MOS GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THE NAM. WITH STRONG W WINDS IN THE LOW-MID
LEVELS...BELIEVE THAT TEMPS SHOULD BE ADIABATIC OR SUPER ADIABATIC BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND BASED ON MODEL TEMPS...WILL GO CLOSER TO
THE WARM GFS GUIDANCE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

WINDY AND DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN PERHAPS A
TREND TOWARDS WETTER CONDITIONS THOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS
STILL HIGH ON PROGNOSIS FOR A PATTERN CHANGE...

SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN FOR THURS NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FAST
MOVING SYSTEM CLIPS THROUGH NORTHWEST COLORADO ON FRIDAY.  SFC DEW
POINTS HAVE LITTLE CHANCE TO RECOVER AS DRY LINE GETS DRIVEN
EASTWARD INTO KS THURS EVENING...WITH POOR RECOVERIES EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS THURS NIGHT.  AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...WESTERLY WINDS WILL KICK IN AGAIN ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY...SETTING UP ANOTHER DAY FOR POTENTIAL HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF THE PLAINS.  HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL START OUT LOW...SO WILL ONLY BE WAITING FOR THE WINDS TO
KICK IN TO MEET CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS.  WINDS SHOULD
START UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BY MID DAY...BEFORE SPREADING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...FAR EASTERN AREAS MAY STRUGGLE TO MEET THE 3 HOUR REQUIRED
DURATION OF WIND GUSTS...SO WILL PLAN TO LEAVE KIOWA AND PROWERS
COUNTY OUT OF THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY. STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN MT SLOPES
AND THE I-25 CORRIDOR WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE...APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF
SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT LOOK LIGHT...AND
GENERALLY JUST UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS WILL BE MORE EASTERLY ACROSS THE SE PLAINS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE QUITE LOW AGAIN. FOR
NOW THINK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA THOUGH
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS.

STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES ON THE SYSTEMS COMING IN OVER THE LATE
WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LATEST GFS HAS TRENDED
FASTER...WEAKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY...AND
NOW TRACKS IT ACROSS NORTHERN CO ON SUN. THIS IS QUITE A DEPARTURE
FROM THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS AND EC WHICH HAD A CLOSED LOW
MOVING ACROSS NRN/CEN NM AROUND SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. ECMWF HAS ALSO
TRENDED THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE GFS AND IS IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT. GFS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW SOME MEMBERS CLOSING THE
SYSTEM OFF ON A FARTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK...BUT GIVEN THE PATTERN
THIS YEAR...AFRAID THAT THE DRIER SOLN FOR SE CO MAY BE THE MORE
ACCURATE. WILL HOLD THE COURSE FOR NOW AS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
SYSTEM DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. HAVE DROPPED BACK MAX TEMPS FOR
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP SOME SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PICKING UP SOME
ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WITH FARTHER
NORTH TRACK...SOUTHEAST PLAINS NOT QUITE AS FAVORED FOR GETTING
PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE IS STILL A PERIOD OF UPSLOPE/UPGLIDE ON
SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN THE SCT POPS FOR NOW.

UNCERTAINTY GROWS FOR TUES/WED WITH EC SHOWING ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUES NIGHT AND INTO WRN CO ON WED PAINTING A
WETTER SOLN FOR CO. THE GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER TROF DROPPING
THROUGH EASTERN CO FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES WILL TREND GRIDS TOWARDS CLIMO FOR THE NEW DAY 8.
-KT

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS NEXT 24H. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
WINDS FROM THE E TO SE FOR KPUB AND KCOS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVE. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W TO SW ON THU. CONTDVD
COULD BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THU AFTERNOON AS SCT-NMRS SHSN DEVELOP
OVR WRN CO. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ221-222-
224>233-235.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR COZ221-222-224>233-235-237.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
351 PM MDT WED MAR 23 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-242200-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
351 PM MDT WED MAR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR A LARGE SECTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO DUE TO CONTINUING DRY FUELS...PROJECTED
GUSTY WINDS AND PROJECTED LOW HUMIDITIES. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...AND SO A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR MOST OF THIS AREA.
SATURDAY COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

ACCUMULATING GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW
SHOULD BE NOTED OVER LARGE SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS EARLY SPRING STORM...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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