Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, March 23 to 24, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
413 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING...TRIGGERING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF SUNSHINE...HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER. OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RADAR INDICATES WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAKING
ITS WAY INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON...OF WHICH A
FEW STORMS HAVE BECOME RATHER STRONG. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE
MAIN THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS A STRONG 80+KT
JET STREAK PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION. ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR IS ALSO
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS EVENING...
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
THE ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS TIGHTENED. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
BEGIN SCATTERED EARLY TUESDAY...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS... BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO SCATTER IN THAT REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS PROBABLE AS H85 TEMPS DROP OFF TO
-3 TO -7C RANGE ON MOST OF THE MODELS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE FRIDAY A.M. LOWS BUT ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY AS LESS THAN IDEAL
RADIATION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE FORM OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING EAST ON THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW. THIS MAY MAY HOLD TEMPS
OFF THE BASEMENT FLOOR BUT STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD WELL
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS..20S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW 30S OUT EAST. WOULD
NOT BE VERY REMARKABLE FOR LATE MARCH EXCEPT FOR THE UNUSUALLY EARLY
START TO THE GROWING SEASON CAUSED BY OUR BIG WARM-UP THIS WEEK.
FROST/FREEZE SEASON FOR STATEMENTS NOT IN EFFECT UNTIL APRIL EVEN IN
THE PIEDMONT...BUT MAY NEED TO REMIND PEOPLE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
PLANT DAMAGE ON FRIDAY MORNING IN THE FORM OF AN SPS BUT WILL PUT
MENTION IN THE HWO OF COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING. COOL DAY ON
FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. RAPID CHANGES ENSUE ON SATURDAY AS STRONG
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BRING THE NEXT SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND ANOTHER COOL DAY. POPS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALREADY PLENTY OF MODEL DIVERGENCE AT THIS
POINT. GFS IS THE STRONGER/WETTER MODEL (VERSUS NAM12) WITH SURFACE
LOW RACING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS THRU TN VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY EARLY SUNDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF CMC/SREF/GFS FOR POPS/QPF
WHICH COULD BE 0.25 TO 0.50 INNC RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PRIMARY
FEATURES TO AFFECT THE CONUS DURING THE EXTENDED AS AN H5 UPPER LOW
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE U.S. WEST COAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND DROP
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE LIFTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE DEEP UPPER LOW PARKED UP OVER SE CANADA
WILL BE PROVIDING CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREDOMINATING. AS USUAL HOWEVER THE DETAILS
DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY AS SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES ARE FORECAST TO EMERGE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE TRACKS DISCUSSED ABOVE WILL
BRING A COLD RAIN AND POCKETS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW FROM LATE SAT INTO
SUNDAY. A SHORT BUT CHILLY BREAK ENSUES MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
WEST AND 50S EAST BEFORE A SECOND STRONGER SHORT-WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW EMERGES LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE
00Z EURO IS ESPECIALLY BULLISH WITH ITS SURFACE LOW OF 996 MB TAKING
A MILLER B TYPE TRAJECTORY AND HEAVY PRECIP WHILE GFS WAY WEAKER AT
THIS POINT. SO DUE TO STILL SUBSTANTIAL MODEL VARIATION FOR NOW
WILL JUST LEAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS. SPRING TAKING A BEATDOWN!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEW TAF WILL CONTINUES FOR THE AIRPORT AT BLACKSBURG UNDER
WBCTAFBCB.

RADAR INDICATES THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
INCREASING ACROSS KY...OH AND IN THIS AFTERNOON...A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAKE
THEIR WAY EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...UNTIL THIS ACTIVITY
ARRIVES...WILL BE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE...WITH WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING IN THE 25KT TO 30KT RANGE WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN SOUTHEAST WV AND OUR
EXTREME WESTERN VA AS EARLY AS 23/22Z. STORMS ON THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST REGION...WHICH INCLUDES LWB AND BLF HAVE
THE GREATEST CHANCE OF BEING SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. SECONDARY THREATS INCLUDE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN
A MILE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. THE SEVERE THREAT DECREASES TO
THE EAST...WHEN SHOWER AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
AFFECT BCB AND ROA BEGINNING AROUND 24/00Z...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS
WILL STILL BE A THREAT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY SCATTERED EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND HAVE
THEREFORE ONLY PUT VCTS IN THE TAFS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION SHORTLY AFTER 24/00Z...AND EXIT OUR REGION TO THE EAST BY
AROUND 24/04Z. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35KT
THROUGH ABOUT 24/20Z BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WILL ALSO BE CONCERNED WITH MVFR CEILINGS BLF AS RESIDUAL
MOISTURE IS FORCED OVER THE NEARBY TERRAIN BY THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
 TODAY 3/23
ROANOKE......65/1929
LYNCHBURG....66/1907
DANVILLE.....62/1952
BLACKSBURG...50/1991
BLUEFIELD....57/1991

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-
     018>020.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...PC
LONG TERM...PC/WP
AVIATION...NF
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
504 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

VAZ007-WVZ042>045-240915-
TAZEWELL-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
504 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VAZ009>020-022>024-032>035-240915-
SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-
504 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WINDS MAY GUST TO 50 MPH ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VAZ043>047-058-059-240915-
HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
504 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. BOTH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-240915-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-
504 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BEHIND A COLD FRONT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WINDS MAY GUST TO 50 MPH ON THURSDAY
ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NCZ004>006-020-240915-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-
504 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-WVZ042>045-232100-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...
PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...
NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...
BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...
QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
343 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO MUCH OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WITH TIME...AND MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL.

PERSONS RESIDING IN THE AREA SHOULD STAY ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

WERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
425 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             FLAT TOP                37.58N  81.12W
03/23/2011  E1.75 INCH       MERCER             WV   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL FALLING IN FLAT TOP AT 415 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1100080

16

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
434 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             HINTON                  37.67N  80.90W
03/23/2011  E1.75 INCH       SUMMERS            WV   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1100081

EH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
438 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     HAIL             LINDSIDE                37.45N  80.67W
03/23/2011  E0.88 INCH       MONROE             WV   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RNK1100082

EH