Tornadoes and Hail in Colorado, June 18, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011

ANOTHER BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WILL ROLL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING
AS YET ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. FOR SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN ABOVE NORMAL WITH 85-90 IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...90-100 EAST OF THE BORDER AS DRYLINE PUSHES NORTHEAST
ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC. BETTER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FAVOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS. VERY WARM 700MB
TEMPS WILL LIMIT/CAP ANYTHING FURTHER EAST. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 EXCEPT LOW 80S FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE. NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY. POST FRONTAL WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY UPPER LOW
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST BUT THE AREA WELL WITHIN ITS INFLUENCE AS
850 TEMPS SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT RISE. WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXCEPT 80S FROM HILL CITY TO TRIBUNE.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UPPER RIDGE SQUASHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD AS UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S EACH DAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION.

007

&&

.AVIATION...
1125 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011

CURRENT RADAR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
HAVE VCTS STARTING OUT THE TAF FOR KGLD...THEN HAVE A TEMPO GROUP
DURING THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR THE STORMS TO MOVE IN. HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS AT KMCK IN CASE STORMS MIGRATE THAT
FAR DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF. STORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA AFTER 6Z. SOUNDINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS SHOW A POSSIBILITY FOR
FOG TO MOVE IN AFTER 6Z. INCLUDED A SLIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTION
AND SOME LOW CLOUDS FOR THIS.

JTL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
200 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011

AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WILL HAVE MIN RH OF 20
PERCENT OR LESS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREAS
CLOSER TO 10 PERCENT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WHICH
WOULD LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...WITH RECENT RAINFALL THE LAST NIGHT OR TWO AND MORE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES.

007

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1100 AM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011 /1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN
COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST INTO KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.