Wildfire in Texas, June 18 to 24, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
133 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.AVIATION...
WINDS TO REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNSET ALTHOUGH VFR WX WILL HOLD. VFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TARGET THIS MORNING...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
ADJUSTED HOURLY WIND...WIND GUST...AND DEWPOINT TO BETTER FIT WITH
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...AND TWEAKED FORECAST HIGHS JUST A LITTLE.
REMOVED THE SCEC HEADLINE A LITTLE EARLY WITH WINDS CURRENTLY
BORDERLINE AND EXPECTED TO FURTHER DECREASE A BIT AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH SHY OF OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA...HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 105 DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO TAKE SENSIBLE PRECAUTIONS IF ENGAGED
IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

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PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/

AVIATION UPDATE...PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING OVER AEX AND
ARA SHOULD DISPERSE AROUND 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. EXPECT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER 14Z BECOMING
GUSTY WELL INTO THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AFTER 00Z.

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SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED OUT OF THE
GULF AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THIS MOISTURE IS CAPPED AROUND 6K FEET...PRECLUDING ANY VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF CU STREETS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ALOFT TO THE WEST AND FROM THE SURFACE TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO AN ALREADY WARM
AIRMASS TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.

SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES FORECATED CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
INHERITED AND GUIDANCE VALUES TODAY DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.

LONG TERM...BY MONDAY WINDS COULD INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS DEEPENS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ON SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STRONG UPPER TROF AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITING THE U.S. MIDSECTION. A GOOD FEED OF
MOISTURE OUT OF THE CARRIBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD PROVIDE A
PROLONGED WET PATTERN BEGINNING ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BE MOST
WELCOME CONSIDERING THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WE HAVE BEEN IN.

MARINE...CAUTION FLAGS ON THE WESTERN WATERS DUE TO A STRONG
GRADIENT WHICH WILL RELAX BY THIS AFTERNOON, ONLY TO TIGHTEN UP
AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE MONDAY AS
THE MIDWESTERN LOW DEEPENS AND CRANKS UP THE GRADIENT. A LONG
FETCH WILL MEAN BUILDING SEAS AS WELL.

CLIMATE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO WITHIN HAILING
DISTANCE OF THE RECORD TODAY AT ALEXANDRIA. THE OLD RECORD OF 104
DEGREES WAS ESTABLISHED BACK IN 1918.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  94  77  92  79 /   0  10   0  10  10
KBPT  78  94  78  92  80 /   0  10   0  10  10
KAEX  76 100  74  96  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
KLFT  77  95  77  94  77 /   0  10   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1119 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-191630-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
1119 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 105
DEGREES TODAY. TAKE SENSIBLE PRECAUTIONS IF ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 DEGREES
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...WITH EVEN
GREATER RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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