Hail in Colorado, June 18, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
330 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011

.SHORT TERM...

(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 8 PM. STORMS FIRED EARLY IN EL PASO COUNTY AND AREAS TO THE
NORTH. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS OF 20Z REMAINS OVER THE FAR EAST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S AT KLAA. INVERTED V TYPE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE
A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH SEVERE STORMS. STORM JUST
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA HAD DECENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE AND SOME
ROTATION AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE OUT
NEAR THE KS BORDER WHERE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE.

ELSEWHERE...WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN KALS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CO MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. DECENT
RH RECOVERY NEAR WESTCLIFFE AND THE DUCKETT FIRE OVERNIGHT SO IT MAY
BE DIFFICULT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE AREA (EASTERN FREMONT AND
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES) TO VERIFY RED FLAG CONDITIONS. STILL
WILL LEAVE AREA UNCHANGED AS THE DRIER AIR MAY YET MOVE IN THIS
AFTERNOON.

ON SUNDAY...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER THE CWA WITH
ANOTHER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON TAP. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FROM FIRE WEATHER ZONES 221 AND 226 (TELLER AND
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTIES) AND UPGRADE REMAINDER OF AREA TO A RED
FLAG WARNING. NO DOUBT AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COLORADO
BORDER WILL BE WINDY...WARM AND DRY. AREAS FARTHER NORTH MAY BE A
LITTLE LESS WINDY...BUT STILL RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MET.
MODELS NOW PROGGING A LATER ARRIVAL TIME FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY
NIGHT. LOWERED POPS FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO LATEST MODEL TIMING. STARK

.LONG TERM...

(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS FOR THE LONG TERM. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE AS A COLD FRONT HEADS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS
COLD FRONT BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO DISAGREE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY MAKES IT...THE NAM TAKES THE FRONT ALL THE WAY INTO NEW
MEXICO WHILE THE GFS STALLS IT ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR. FOR
NOW HAVE THE BEST POPS SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND
FOCUSED ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. ON MONDAY MORNING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SILL SURGE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING ONLY ABOUT 500 J/KG OVER THE
PLAINS SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. THEY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S FOR THE PLAINS. WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PALMER DIVIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARM UP TO SOUTHERN COLORADO WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S. AFTERNOON AND EVENING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A NICE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FOR NOT KEPT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND DEGREE OF CAPPING IN PLACE. MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

KCOS/KPUB...RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF KCOS CURRENTLY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BY 19/1700Z.

KALS...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU 02Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ222-224-225-
227>237.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ222-224-225-
229-230-233.

&&

40/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
100 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-191300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
100 PM MDT SAT JUN 18 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WILL BE FAVORED FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PIKES PEAK REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS...THE WET MOUNTAIN
VALLEY...AS WELL AS FREMONT...HUERFANO AND LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 30 MPH AND HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 15 PERCENT WILL COMBINE WITH
PERSISTENT DRY VEGETATION TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH
RAPID RATES OF FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD...SHOULD A FIRE START TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF
25 MPH AND HIGHER...HUMIDITIES FALLING TO BELOW 15 PERCENT AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD IF A FIRE STARTS
ON SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEN FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
LIGHTNING...WINDS GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER THERE COULD ALSO BE A COUPLE OF
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM PUEBLO TO LAMAR...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES...
AND ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE PLAINS...THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

STARK