Damaging Wind in Colorado, August 2, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
301 PM MDT TUE AUG 2 2011

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

...SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN COVERAGE OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING AN
EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO ATTM. 12Z ANALYSIS INDICATING THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWATS RUNNING BETWEEN 150-180 PERCENT OF
NORMAL (1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES) ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SFC...WEAK COLD
FRONT WHICH MOVED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING IS INTO THE
WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH EASTERLY
UPSLOPE STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO ATTM. MSAS AND SPC
DATA HAS CAPES BETWEEN 1000-2500 J/KM OVER THE AREA...GREATEST ACROSS
THE FAR SE PLAINS WHERE SOME CINH ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE.

TONIGHT...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EMBEDDED UPPER
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO TRANSLATING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL COLORADO THIS EVENING AND INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE DISTURBANCE AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING...WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS
THROUGH THE EVENING. FURTHER EAST...HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS IN TACT
WITH A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. HAVE
CUT BACK POPS ACROSS THE MTS AFTER MIDNIGHT KEEPING CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER DOING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. A QUICK LOOK
AT 18Z NAM HAS ALSO CUT BACK ON QPF AFTER 06Z. AT ANY RATE...WITH
THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT...ALL STORMS THIS EVENING
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR POSSIBLE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTS AND IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS BOUNTIFUL ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW...THOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
PASSING DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE TAPERED BACK POPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE MORNING...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH SOLAR
HEATING. STORMS TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...WITH THE THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFTS SEE WHERE
THE MOST RAIN FALLS TO DETERMINE IF ANY MORE FLOOD HIGHLIGHTS WILL
BE NEEDED. -MW

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

A COUPLE MORE WET DAYS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM
THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING EASTERN
CO DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD PUT SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN ITS WAKE WED EVENING.  ECMWF AND NAM KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE QPF ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WHILE GFS SPREADS
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN KS WED NIGHT WHERE IT DEVELOPS AN MCS.  THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS THIS DAY...WHICH WILL WARRANT KEEPING AT LEAST
SOME SCATTERED POPS FOR ALL AREAS.  HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS INTO THE LOW LIKELY CATEGORY FOR NOW.  AGAIN...WITH
SLOW STORM MOTIONS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH
FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED FELL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD
WATCH...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW TODAY/S EVENT UNFOLDS GIVEN THAT
FORCING WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOULD BE LESS THAN TODAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STILL LOOK FAIRLY WET FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT PLAINS.  DEW POINTS MAINTAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
AREA...AND MODELS BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WESTERN AND NRN CO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THIS SHOULD TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...PUSHING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME DRYING
BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY
BEHIND THIS WAVE...WHICH MAY CUT BACK ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE A BIT
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH GETS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD.  THIS
SHIFTS THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE POPS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.  BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW SFC DEW POINTS FALLING OFF INTO THE UPPER TEEN AND
20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY...THE LOWEST ITS BEEN FOR QUITE
SOME TIME.  HAVE TRENDED THE POPS DOWNWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE 90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH 70S AND 80S FOR THE MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY
COMMUNITIES.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. STORMS EXPECTED TO BE LESS NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH STILL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND PLAINS AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING OCCASIONAL MVFR AND
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT ALS..COS AND PUB WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL BETWEEN 00Z-06Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFT 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ058>088.

&&

23/31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1157 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2011

COZ058>089-093>099-031300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1157 AM MDT TUE AUG 2 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORMS MOVING
OUT ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF
1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

THE SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL ALSO BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OTHER AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING...INCLUDING
THE BURN SCARS...URBAN AREAS...AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE. PERSONS
IN OR NEAR THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS TRAVELERS...SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS...ADVISORIES...OR
WARNINGS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FOR WEDNESDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROBABLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER THOSE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED
FROM PREVIOUS STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

23/31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
327 PM MDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W BONCARBO            37.22N 104.72W
08/02/2011  M1.10 INCH       LAS ANIMAS         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STARTED 244 PM...ENDED 315 PM...

&&

JKH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
427 PM MDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW BONCARBO          37.21N 104.72W
08/02/2011                   LAS ANIMAS         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROAD FLOODING...WATER WASHED OUT PART OF ROAD AROUND A
            CULVERT.

&&

JKH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
441 PM MDT TUE AUG 02 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW PETERSON AFB      38.90N 104.72W
08/02/2011  M1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STARTED 410 PM...STILL RAINING HARD...

&&

JKH