Flood in Arkansas, May 6 to 9, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
158 PM CDT FRI MAY 6 2011

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY ONE SHORT WAVE OF NOTE AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE
MODELS...A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERAL ROADS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS REMAIN FLOODED DUE TO HIGH
WATER. MANY RIVERS ARE IN MAJOR FLOOD AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR MORE. PLEASE REFER TO THE
NUMEROUS FLOOD STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LITTLE ROCK FOR SPECIFICS ON RIVER FLOODING.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED ON FRIDAY BUT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT STILL APPEARS THE MAIN
ENERGY WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST
WITH BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ACTUAL PRECIP FALLING ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND HOPEFULLY OUT OF THE BASINS THAT FEED THE
RIVERS OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY WILL DROP
INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOW TAKES ON A
POSITIVE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE MID SOUTH IN
RESPONSE. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING
WILL KEEP AREA DRY BUT SEVERAL WEAL IMPULSES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL
CLOUDS TO THE AREA. OVERALL MAV/MEX NUMBERS/TRENDS LOOK REASONABLE
AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG
TERM ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING 80S...AND EVEN SOME 90S POSSIBLE. DURING THIS SAME TIME...A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL
BEGIN LIFTING EAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES LATE WED INTO THU. WHILE
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM...POPS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVE EAST. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS
LIKE BEST POPS WILL BE FOR THU...THOUGH THERE DOES REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME TIMING ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS
REGARDING THE BEST POPS LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE LATEST FORECAST DATA
IS ANALYZED.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     53  80  61  84 /  20  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         55  84  64  87 /   0   0  10  10
HARRISON AR       52  79  61  85 /  20  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  55  81  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     55  84  63  87 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      55  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  52  79  61  84 /  20  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        53  80  61  84 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     55  82  63  86 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  80  62  86 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         54  81  62  85 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      55  82  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...56 / LONG TERM...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
817 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
817 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD ROAD CLOSURES AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS MANY RIVERS
CONTINUE TO RISE AND STANDING WATER ELSEWHERE IS VERY SLOW TO
RECEDE. MANY CREEKS AND RIVERS REMAIN OUT OF THEIR BANKS ACROSS
THE STATE TODAY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH MEANS WATER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
INDIVIDUALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECASTS FOR THE LATEST ON RIVER LEVELS.

WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...ANY RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SMALL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY...WEDNESDAY...AND
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...BUT A
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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