Early in March, severe drought conditions spread into parts of western Arkansas.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Early in March, severe drought conditions spread into parts of western Arkansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 8, 5:52 AM CST, 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 552 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 .AVIATION... A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY DURING THE LATE MORNING. VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR BY MIDDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ESP[ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SQUALL LINE FORMS ON THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011/ SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR...WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS. MAIN QUESTION OF TODAY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH WARM FRONT...AND THUS INSTABILITY...WILL MOVE. FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THE GREATEST IN REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL...IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO MOVE NORTH...THERE IS ENOUGH WIND ENERGY TO WARRANT A CONCERN FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE BETTER SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS WILL FORM INTO A SQUALL LINE. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE REMAINING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY FLOOD HEADLINES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH RAINFALL MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT OVERALL PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND BEYOND. MODELS IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMING IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS WERE NOT SHOWING THIS FEATURE AT ALL AND ITS POSSIBLE THIS MODEL MAY BE TRENDING THE WAY OF THE GFS. REGARDLESS...WE ARE STILL TALKING DAY SEVEN AND ONLY LOW END POPS CAN BE JUSTIFIED UNTIL MODELS BEGIN TO SETTLE ON A SOLUTION. PERIOD INITIATES WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING THE STATE BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE AND BARELY ANY CLOUDS WILL MARK ITS PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AS NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY BRINGS THEM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK GOOD AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED. AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE GFS MUCH WETTER AND FASTER VERSUS ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART. FOR REASONS LISTED PREVIOUSLY...WILL ONLY HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH. IF CURRENT GFS THINKING COMES TO FRUITION...SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BATESVILLE AR 56 48 57 34 / 90 90 10 10 CAMDEN AR 66 52 64 36 / 90 80 10 0 HARRISON AR 56 42 52 31 / 90 70 10 10 HOT SPRINGS AR 64 47 60 35 / 90 80 10 10 LITTLE ROCK AR 62 49 60 35 / 90 80 10 10 MONTICELLO AR 65 55 63 37 / 90 90 10 10 MOUNT IDA AR 64 45 59 35 / 90 70 10 10 MOUNTAIN HOME AR 54 44 54 32 / 90 80 10 10 NEWPORT AR 58 50 58 35 / 90 90 10 10 PINE BLUFF AR 64 53 62 37 / 90 90 10 10 RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 44 56 33 / 90 70 10 10 SEARCY AR 59 49 58 35 / 90 90 10 10 STUTTGART AR 62 53 60 36 / 90 90 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56 AVIATION...56
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 500 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091100- ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND- CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE- PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE- WOODRUFF-YELL- 500 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM....LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS MORNING... WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM...ONE FROM LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH WILL HELP INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERN. AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SECOND CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED AS WELL. AS WINDS WILL BE ROTATING WITH HEIGHT...A FEW TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ANY TORNADO ACTIVITY WILL EXTEND SOUTH OF A WALDRON TO LITTLE ROCK TO BRINKLEY LINE. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS NOT CERTAIN BY ANY MEANS. THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MAKES IT INTO THE STATE. IF BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST DO DEVELOP...THIS WILL HELP THE AIR MASS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. EVEN IF SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT MATERIALIZE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE STATE. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW EVENTS...THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND PRECAUTIONS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT SHOULD BE TAKEN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 56
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
At the beginning of March, moderate drought covered Scott County. Early in the month, conditions worsened, with severe drought developing over the entire county.
At the beginning of March, moderate drought covered Logan County. Early in the month, conditions worsened, with severe drought developing over the southern half of the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, March 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 283593, 283595.