Tornado and Dust Storm in Arkansas, June 13 to 16, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1023 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...AND TO INCLUDE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF MISSOURI WILL AFFECT NORTHEAST
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN CONCERNS. THIS AREA OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT MAY AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TODAY...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE MID 90S.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011/

AVIATION...
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. PATCHY LIGHT FOG
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 2SM TO 5SM BR...ESPECIALLY AT KHRO AND KPBF.
AFTER SUNRISE FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS OVER NORTHERN AR. EXPECT LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON VFR TO
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS...WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WENT WITH VCTS AND CB CLOUDS. MAINLY VFR CENTRAL
AND SOUTH AR WITH AFTERNOON VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION AND WENT WITH
ONLY CB CLOUD FORMATION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. E TO S SURFACE WIND FLOW
10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SE TO SW 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER LOW THEN DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTER PART OF THE
COUNTRY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND SHOULD LIFT NORTH TODAY. A SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL
BE DRY AND HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE FURTHER NORTH ON TUESDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. WILL SPREAD RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP CHANCES FOR AR THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BLEND
WITH A BIT MORE LEAN TOWARD GFS PER NCEP TRENDS.

FRIDAY HAS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN AR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER TX AND TO THE SW U.S. DOES MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT DOES NOT HOLD BACK POSSIBLE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY IN THE W TO NW UPPER FLOW INTO AR. SO CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IS IN THE FORECAST. ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE DOES
BUILD A BIT MORE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MO...BUT WILL POSSIBLY GET CLOSE TO
NORTHERN...NORTHEASTERN AND PARTS OF EASTERN AR. A CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POP IS IN THE FORECAST. THEN ON SUNDAY...THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS KEEPS A STRONG SOUTH FLOW OVER
AR WITH THE BOUNDARY WELL NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN AREAS IS IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN LOW WITH ONLY PULSE STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE AT
NORMAL VALUES IN AREAS THAT SEE CLOUDS AND RAIN....WHILE ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES OTHERWISE.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1025 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1025 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS IN MISSOURI WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT...AND
WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTHEAST OF MOUNTAIN HOME...HEBER
SPRINGS...SEARCY AND BRINKLEY.

A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
TEXAS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE AROUND 100 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY
AND HOT...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A NEW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.
SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE. ANY STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THIS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

59/46