Heavy rainfall caused the Cache River to rise back above flood stage late in February. The river remained above flood stage into March.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Heavy rainfall caused the Cache River to rise back above flood stage late in February. The river remained above flood stage into March.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 26, 11:45 PM CST, 4 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1145 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011 .AVIATION... MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS TO START THE OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR. ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS MOSTLY SOUTH AT 3 TO 10 KNOTS. SUNDAY SUNRISE...MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH PATCHY IFR. THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL RAISE TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PATCHY MVFR. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION TIMING CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND HAVE HELD OFF ON MENTIONING PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN VCSH LATE IN THE TAFS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011/ .UPDATE... HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE CURRENT TRENDS...AS WELL AS INCREASE OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE STATE. STILL ON TRACK TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY SUN NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MON MORNING HRS. AGAIN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT WITH HIGH LEVELS OF FORECAST LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER A VERY NICE START TO THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SEEMS POSSIBLE IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT OVERALL IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLEND OF THESE MODELS IS PREFERRED. THE NAM SOLUTION REMAINS THE OUTLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE DISCOUNTED. DEVELOPING SURFACE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND BE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN GETS ESTABLISHED. WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK SOMEWHAT BUT EVEN SO...WIDESPREAD 70S ARE EXPECTED. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO OUR NEXT POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY TIME FRAME. CURRENT MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY REVEALS COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THAT IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP INTO A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE AND TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS ALL WIND FIELDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S STATEWIDE. MUCH LIKE LAST THURSDAY...INCREASING JET DYNAMICS SUPPORT A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DEVELOPING WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY WELL ABOVE THE CRITICAL THRESHOLD OF 150 M2/S2. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL END BY LATE MONDAY MORNING AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH AT NIGHT...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. WHILE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY...OVERALL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IN CHECK. IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...BREEZY AND DRIER WEATHER RETURNS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL LIKELY SEE A LONGER DURATION OF CLOUDS WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW MONDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EVEN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MEX NUMBERS THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK TO THE STATE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE STATE AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && 62
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 215 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271045- ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND- CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE- PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE- WOODRUFF-YELL- 215 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE STATE WITH WARM AND MOIST ARE RETURNING THE AREA. WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...REACHING EASTERN ARKANSAS BY MONDAY MORNING. WIND ENERGY WILL BE SIGNIFICANT WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AND AND THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WINDS WILL BE CHANGING DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. ALMOST ALL OF ARKANSAS IS UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME FOR THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM. BE AWARE...THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL BE ASLEEP. PRECAUTIONS FOR AN OVERNIGHT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BE TAKEN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 56
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Cache River rose above flood stage for a third time in February.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 278165.