Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, April 4, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011/

DISCUSSION...

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH VERY STRONG
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUING TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

INCREDIBLY WARM AND WINDY WEATHER WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND WERE OCCURRING WITH WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH REPORTED IN SOME SPOTS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MS RIVER. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE LOWER
AND MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID
60S. A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST MO...NORTHWEST AR AND
SOUTHEAST OK ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHWEST AR. THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REMAINED CAPPED WITH NO CONVECTION
OCCURRING. THE 00Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED A CAP OF OF ABOUT 3 DEGREES
C AT 800 MB.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTH MS AND MUCH OF WEST TN
IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...AND EAST AR AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL IN A SLIGHT RISK. THIS LOOKS GOOD AND IN LINE WITH
EARLIER THINKING. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AS THE CAP ERODES THIS MORNING...MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR AND THE
MO BOOTHEEL EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY BECOME
LINEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE IS INDICATED NEAR THE MS RIVER BY LATE MORNING.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...CONDITIONS WILL BE RIPE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED LAYER MUCAPE WILL INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 6 AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 925 MB WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN
60 AND 65 KTS. 0-1 KM SR HELICITY WITH RANGE BETWEEN 250 AND 400
M2/S2 WITH DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THINK INTENSE AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL OCCUR IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WITH
LARGE HAIL ALSO LIKELY. BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE MAY
PRODUCE EMBEDDED TORNADOES. ALSO CAN NOT FEW OUT A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS THAT WOULD PRODUCE TORNADOES IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL
LINE...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAIN LESS CERTAIN. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE COMMON...LOCALLY MORE...AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH READINGS NEAR 50 DEGREES BY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING STRONG AND GUSTY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

MUCH CALMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
SKIES WILL CLEAR. THINK TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOWER AND
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ADDED PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST TO
PARTS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...MUCH OF WEST TN...AND
PART OF NORTHEAST MS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW ON THE FROST POTENTIAL WITH
WINDS POTENTIALLY REMAINING UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FROST AT A MINIMUM.
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING...THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE BORDERLINE. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING OR
FROST ADVISORY AND LET THE DAYSHIFT EXAMINE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

BY MID-WEEK...WARMER WEATHER AND SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER THE MIDSOUTH. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A
VERY NICE DAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS WARM WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS ARKANSAS AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE
BETWEEN 12-16Z AT KJBR...15-19Z AT KMEM...16Z-20Z AT KMKL...AND
18-22Z AT KTUP. IFR OR LOWER CIGS EXPECTED WITHIN THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LIMITED VSBYS.

GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT AS THE FRONT
DRAWS CLOSER..THEN INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST POST
FRONTAL. CIGS EXPECTED TO RISE GRADUALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEAR SKIES BY 06Z.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  37  62  45 / 100  10   0   0
MKL  75  33  60  39 / 100  10   0   0
JBR  71  34  62  41 / 100  10   0   0
TUP  79  37  61  37 / 100  40   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR PHILLIPS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-051100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
523 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE MODERATE RISK
INCLUDES THE CITIES OF MEMPHIS...JACKSON AND TUPELO. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM RIPLEY
TO UNION CITY. IN ADDITION...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EAST
ARKANSAS ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES
THE CITY OF JONESBORO.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES COMMON WITH LOCALLY
MORE IN SOME SPOTS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL
LINE THAT WILL INTENSIFY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. BY LATE
MORNING...AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE IN THE MODERATE RISK
AREA. THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE THE
REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY 7 PM.

VERY STRONG AND GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A RESULT. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40 AND 50
MPH IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REMAINING STRONG AND GUSTY.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING DOWNED TREE LIMBS
AND POWER OUTAGES IN SOME LOCATIONS. REFERENCE THE LATEST WIND
ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...INTO
MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS IN CASE A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE
WARNING IS ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PATCHY OR AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FROM
PARTS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...INTO
MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS IN CASE A FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE
WARNING IS ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

JCL