Flood in Arkansas, April 16 to 30, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 AM CDT SAT APR 16 2011

.AVIATION...

NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE REMAINS UNDER BKN-OVC SKIES TONIGHT. A LARGE
AREA OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO FEED CLOUDS INTO THE STATE. CIGS ARE CURRENTLY VFR
AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN THAT WAY BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY ROUGHLY 20Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. IN
THE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS GOING NEAR CALM BY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011/

UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT THIS
TIME CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE EAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL STAY IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 21Z SATURDAY. HAVE ALSO TWEAKED THE SKY GRIDS
SLIGHTLY AND PREVIOUSLY UPDATED THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. REST
OF THE FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EXIT FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR CLEARING AND WINDS TO
BECOME A LITTLE LESS GUSTY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY...WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE FORECAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED.

THE HIGH WILL HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY...AND IT WILL BEGIN WARMING UP. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
WILL BE NOTED BY MONDAY.

THE PERIOD WILL END WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO ARKANSAS FROM
THE NORTHWEST...BUT WILL STALL AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPR FLOW IS FCST TO RMN PROGRESSIVE THRU THE PD...WITH UNSETTLED WX
CONDS EXPECTED. MOIST/SLY FLOW WL PREVAIL AT THE START OF THE PD AS
A NEW SFC LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE SRN PLAINS. FIRST UPR TROF WL BE
MOVG THRU THE REGION WITH SCTD SHRA/TSRA ANTICIPATED. SEVERAL MORE
UPR IMPULSES WL TRANSLATE NEWD ACRS THE MID SOUTH THRU THE PD.
MEANWHILE...A FNTL BNDRY WL MEANDER OVR THE FA THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEK...WHICH WL INTERACT WITH THE SYSTEMS ALOFT TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SCTD STORMS. MOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD THRU THE PD WITH ONLY
SLGT ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  43  72  53 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         69  44  78  57 /   0   0   0  10
HARRISON AR       60  40  74  52 /  10   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  44  75  56 /   0   0   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  47  75  55 /   0   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     69  45  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      66  40  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  40  76  51 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        61  43  73  53 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     67  46  76  55 /   0   0   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  43  74  53 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         64  41  74  52 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      66  46  74  56 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
825 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-161015-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
825 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN
ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT
TIME HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS SUCH...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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