A thunderstorm produced heavy rain near Nutrioso over the Wallow Fire Burn Area. This caused flash flooding and debris/mud flow across Highway 180.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A thunderstorm produced heavy rain near Nutrioso over the Wallow Fire Burn Area. This caused flash flooding and debris/mud flow across Highway 180.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 7, 9:16 AM MST, 4 hours 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 916 AM MST WED SEP 7 2011 .SYNOPSIS...FOR TODAY...DRIER AIR ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECT IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOOK FOR THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION BEHIND YESTERDAYS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WHERE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES IN THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCH RANGE. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA CAN BE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE RISE. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE ACCURATELY REFLECTS THIS TREND AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.../330 AM MST/...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN ON A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK TO PAYSON EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. PROGS SHOW UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE TODAY...WITH DRY NORTH THEN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW H7 TO PUSH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND ALREADY SEEN IN THE KICX VELOCITY. MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST PACKAGE. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY..STREAMLINES SHOW ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO CROSS THE AZ/ UT BORDER EARLY FRIDAY...WITH WEAK DYNAMICS. A LARGER LOW SHOULD SET UP AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA STARTING FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER AZ...WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AZ. COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND TROUGH WILL AID THE INSTABILITY...AND INCREASING SHEAR COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF STRONGER CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND POPS WERE KEPT FAIRLY HIGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS THE DAY. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT TODAYS CONVECTION TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM KPAN TO KRQE. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION AFTER 18Z. ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC..................CLARK/DL AVIATION................BOHLIN FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 613 AM MST WED SEP 7 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-080700- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 613 AM MST WED SEP 7 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT LINGERING MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORM MAY PRODUCE BRIEF DOWNPOURS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD TO ALL OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY. THIS WEEKEND....MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES WILL LEAD TO GREATER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 200 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain and flash flooding caused mud and debris flows to cross Highway 180 at mile post 416 near Nutrioso.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 348542.