Thunderstorms with heavy rain produced flash flooding in the area where the Wallow Fire burned.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain produced flash flooding in the area where the Wallow Fire burned.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 9:25 AM MST, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 925 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2011 .SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO WESTERN ARIZONA AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. && DISCUSSION...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED AND CUMULUS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE...NO UPDATES NEEDED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND THE 88D WITH A FEW CELLS ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY. FOR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...PROGS OVERALL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WITH MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE BUMPED UP A FEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS THEY SHOW A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE WEST COAST. WINDS ALOFT VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN AZ AS SOON AS TUESDAY AND SPREADING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE REDUCED OR REMOVED ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HAS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM KAYENTA THROUGH PAYSON. AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME GENTLE SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ERRATIC WINDS AND MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC..................HOWARD/DL AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...RB FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 944 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-100700- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 944 AM MST SAT JUL 9 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN BY LATE MORNING...SPREADING TO LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STORMS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TODAY'S STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...CAUSING SOME ISOLATED NUISANCE FLOODING. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE FIRST OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND LATER OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS...BEGINNING BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SUNDAY SHOULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN TODAY. STARTING MONDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUAL DRYING TO CREEP EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. HOWARD
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 193 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:50 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused Colter Creek to overflow the banks and flood yards. One quarter of an inch of rain fell in just 15 minutes.
Spotters reported water, mud, and burn area debris/ash flowing across residential properties and threatening homes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 333019, 333017.