A strong, deep, and cold low pressure center moved down the West Coast and then across Arizona. This storm brought heavy snow to much of the area even at lower elevations.
Every event with a place to put it; 9 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A strong, deep, and cold low pressure center moved down the West Coast and then across Arizona. This storm brought heavy snow to much of the area even at lower elevations. The very cold nature of this storm maximized precipitation efficiency at lower elevations while some upper elevations received less snow. This storm also brought strong winds over and northeast of the Mogollon Rim.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 26, 3:30 AM MST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 330 AM MST SAT FEB 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A VERY COLD...BUT FAST-MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW...ALONG WITH SOME VALLEY RAIN...TO THE STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EAST OF FLAGSTAFF THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO THE VALLEY FLOORS LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE EVEN IN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AMD A WARMING TREND FOR NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING...BUT VERY DEEP AND COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVELS SO FAR...BUT MESO-SCALE MODELS ARE ALL INDICATING A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MANY UPSLOPE AREAS EXTENDING FROM FLAGSTAFF...TO THE THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND ARRIVES IN WESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS EVENING...THE CENTRAL RIM COUNTRY AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY NOON MST SUNDAY. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL CONTAIN ABOUT 4 HOURS OF VERY HEAVY SNOW AND THIS IS WHEN THE BULK OF OUR ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. THE 06Z MODEL RUNS HAVE PRESENTED AN UNSETTLING PROBLEM WITH QPF. THE 06Z NAM12 HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED QPF ALONG THE RIM...WHERE THE 06Z GFS HAS DECREASED QPF OVER THE RIM...AND INCREASED QPF OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU AND YAVAPAI COUNTY. LOOKING AT HOURLY SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL STRUCTURE SATURDAY NIGHT...IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THE GFS...AND WE WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE NAM12. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO THE VALLEY FLOORS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH JUST ENOUGH QPF TO BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO EVEN THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REACH INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. EVEN THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT DRAWS NEAR. THE LCR IS THE ONLY AREA WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW. THE STEADY SNOW WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY TO SHOWERS SUNDAY AS THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...BUT -35C TEMPERATURES AT 500MB WILL STILL GENERATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. BY MONDAY...MUCH HIGHER HGHTS WILL DOMINATE THE PICTURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH RAPIDLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES...AND DRY CONDITIONS. PLEASE SEE OUR WINTER STORM WARNING...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AND WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS (PHXWSWFGZ AND PHXNPWFGZ) FOR MORE DETAILS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TROUGH 18Z...GENERALLY WEST OF A KOV7-KINW-KPAN LINE. SFC WINDS BECOMING SW 20-30G40KTS AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AZ. SNOW AND RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER 21Z WITH IFR/LCL LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE ALONG FRONT WHICH WILL BE NEAR KE51-KKNB AROUND 00Z SUNDAY...KFLG-KPGA AROUND 06Z...AND KW-KE91 AROUND 12Z. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ008-015-016-018-037-038. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ017. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ004-006-007. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ009>011-018-037-039-040. WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ012>014-017. && PUBLIC................PETERSON AVIATION..............MAS FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 910 PM MST FRI FEB 25 2011 AZZ004>018-037>040-261400- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 910 AM MST FRI FEB 25 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A STRONG AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM...CAUSING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND WORST VISIBILITY WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO START OUT AROUND 5000 FEET IN THE WEST AND 6500 FEET IN THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY FALL TO 3000 FEET OR LOWER BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA BY SUNDAY EVENING WITH FAIR WEATHER RETURNING FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
An average of 5 inches of snow fell in Fredonia at an elevation of 4700 feet.
Heavy snow fell across the lower elevations (below 5000 feet) of Yavapai County where heavy snow warning criteria is only 2 inches in 12 hours. Bagdad received 8 inches of snow at 3800 feet. Paulden and 8 miles northeast of Camp Verde had 2 inches of snow. Cottonwood and Rimrock both had 3 inches of snow. Three miles west of Dewy-Humboldt received 6.2 inches of snow. Three miles northwest of Dewy-Humboldt received 7 inches of snow. Seven miles northeast of Dewy-Humboldt received 10 inches of snow at 4525 feet elevation.
Heavy snow fell across the lower elevations (below 5000 feet) of Yavapai County where heavy snow warning criteria is only 2 inches in 12 hours. Bagdad received 8 inches of snow at 3800 feet. Paulden and 8 miles northeast of Camp Verde had 2 inches of snow. Cottonwood and Rimrock both had 3 inches of snow. Three miles west of Dewy-Humboldt received 6.2 inches of snow. Three miles northwest of Dewy-Humboldt received 7 inches of snow.
Two miles south of Sedona received 5 inches of snow.
Six to 9 inches of snow fell around central and west Flagstaff with only 3 to 5 inches in Doney Park. Nine and a half inches of snow fell around Williams.
Heavy snow fell to below 5000 feet (this zone boundary) all across Yavapai Country. Seven to nine and a half inches of snow fell in and around Prescott and Prescott Valley. Six inches of snow fell 9 miles west of Ash Fort at an elevation of around 5300 feet. Twelve and a half inches of snow fell 7 miles south of Prescott. Eleven inches of snow fell in Ponderosa Park (about 5 miles south of Prescott).
Twelve inches of snow fell in Clints Well and 10 inches of snow fell in Forest Lakes.
Seven inches of snow fell in Young at an elevation of 5200 feet.
Eight inches of snow fell 3 miles southeast of Pinetop-Lakeside.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 277978, 277999, 278000, 278001, 277977, 277998, 277972, 277976, 277974.