Damaging Wind in Arizona, August 26, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS WITH EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CAN
BE SEEN OVER MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THIS DIRECTION AND REDUCE OUR RAIN CHANCES A
BIT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY NICE CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LATEST
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION AND MOVING
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
OVER PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MY POP FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING IS CALLING FOR THE BEST THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MARCH TO THE WEST.

BY TOMORROW THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE HIGH WILL SHIFT A BIT
TO THE WEST AND NEARLY OVERHEAD. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING THAT HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER...BUT THE MODELS DID NOT DO A VERY GOOD JOB FOR
TODAY SINCE THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT RECORDED A HIGH SO FAR OF 108
DEGS. SO...FOR SATURDAY I HAVE A HIGH JUST UNDER HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE TUCSON AREA...BUT MEETING OR EXCEEDING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA
COUNTY...AS WELL AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY. WE COULD BE
DEALING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT MY CONFIDENCE IN HOW HOT IT WILL BE IS
NOT HIGH...SO WILL DEFER THIS DECISION TO THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT SINCE
THEY WILL HAVE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TO PERHAPS SHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS
ISSUE.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TOWARD OUR AREA THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER THE HIGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST
COAST AND PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN ACTIVITY FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN 6 TO 8 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND 3 TO 5 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL BE 7 TO
10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY...THEN 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD-SCT COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA TODAY AND CONTINUING
THRU 27/06Z. FEW-BKN CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL BECOMING SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AT 8-12K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKC-FEW 10-12K FT AFT
27/06Z. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU LATE MORNING
SATURDAY OR 27/18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL OCCUR...EXCEPT STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO
       6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ501-502-505.

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
904 AM MST FRI AUG 26 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     DUST STORM       RED ROCK                32.58N 111.33W
08/25/2011                   PINAL              AZ   NEWSPAPER

            *** 1 FATAL, 3 INJ *** MULTIIPLE VEHICHLE ACCIDENT ON
            I-10 NEAR RED ROCK DUE TO DUST STORM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100093

GL