High Wind in Alaska, November 1, 2011

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
559 AM AKDT TUE NOV 1 2011

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA TODAY AND EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING. CURRENT PARENT LOW IN NORTH
CENTRAL GULF IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY THIS MORNING AS ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT IN NORTH PACIFIC
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF TODAY AND REACHES AROUND
970 MB NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HERE THE LOW BECOMES
STATIONARY AND THEN WEAKENS AS IT STARTS TO TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.

 WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. WINDS SHIFT TO SW FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND DURING THE EVENING FOR SE GULF. WILL HAVE SOLID GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS THROUGH INNER CHANNELS TODAY WITH STRONGEST WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHERE HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE A STRONG WIND
HEADLINE FOR ALL NORTHERN ZONES TODAY AND KEPT HWW FOR SOUTHERN
AND COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. SLY WIND
WILL DECREASE TO BELOW SMCR LEVELS IN THE NORTH TONIGHT.

 RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AS 140+ KT SW JET MOVES A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF WHERE 2-4 INCHES
IS POSSIBLE IN WETTER LOCATION. FASTER MOVEMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS WILL KEEP PRECIP IN 1-2 INCH RANGE. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
TO NEAR 3000 FEET TODAY AS WARM SECTOR MOVES INLAND BUT WILL SEE
SNOW LEVELS FALL TO LESS THAN 1500 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH AS NEXT
BATCH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
5 TO 9 INCHES FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF KLONDIKE HIGHWAY TODAY BUT
WILL SEE SNOWFALL RATES DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH CAA SO JUST HAVE
WSW HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

 MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
USED GFS TO UPDATE GRIDS WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST MODELS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT THEN THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE WEEKEND. NOT
MUCH CHANGE WAS DONE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS
THROUGH THURSDAY TO HANDLE THE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE YUKON WED
NIGHT AND SPREADING SE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK USED A GFS/EC BLEND AS THEY BOTH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ALONG WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE NEXT LOW MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN ABOUT
AVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM RANGE THE RESIDUAL LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WILL SLIDE SE INTO THE SE GULF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE YUKON AND SLIDES EASTWARD FROM
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
WED. THE UPPER HIGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH WED NIGHT/THURSDAY FROM
THE WEST WILL ADVECT COLD AND DRY AIR AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE OUT BY LATE WED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TEMPS WILL FALL
WITH CAA WED NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH RELIEF DURING THURSDAY AS TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S.

AS FOR WINDS...THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED NIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY. STRONG WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WED NIGHT ALONG
WITH HIGH GUSTS FROM INTERIOR PASSES OVER THE NE GULF AND NEAR
CROSS SOUND. GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MARINE WATERS
THROUGH WED AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE DIMINISH THAT
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS E. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHIFTS TO THE NE STRONG GUST FROM INTERIOR PASSES ALONG THE COAST
MOUNTAINS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY. ALSO THERE WILL STRONG CROSS
BARRIER FLOW THAT TAKU WINDS WILL DEVELOP NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU WED
NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS EAST AND A UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL INCREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE THE THREAT OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTH GULF THURSDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME COLD AIR LEFT THAT THEY WILL BEGIN WITH SOME
SNOW BUT WILL WAA CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY DAYBREAK. OVER THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEY TOO WILL HAVE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY MORNING BUT AS CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TRICKY AS THE EC IS HOLDING ON
TO THE COLD AIR A BIT LONGER THAN THE GFS...WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS. THE WINDS WITH THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS
OVER THE GULF TO GALES WITH SMALL CRAFT WINDS OVER THE INNER
CHANNELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT TO THE SE THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND ANOTHER
PROGRESSIVE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF TO DECREASE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND AND PRECIP WILL BE
LIKELY BY SUNDAY.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ022-023-
     026.
         STRONG WIND FROM 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ026.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017-020-021-
     024-025.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM AKDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AKZ028.
         STRONG WIND FROM 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR AKZ029.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ019.
         HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 AM AKDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR AKZ018.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-053.

&&

MM/ABJ