Alaska, 2011

High Wind in Alaska, March 3 to 5, 2011

March 3 to 5, 2011 · NWS AJK · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

C. on 3/4 and 3/5.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.

Strong arctic high pressure again built into the Yukon and B.C. on 3/4 and 3/5. Juneau had another Taku wind event then. Yakutat had another outflow event.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 6:05 AM AKST, 3 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 3, 6:05 AM AKST, 3 hours before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
605 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

.SHORT TERM...A LOW IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAT HAS BEEN A
SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO THE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS NOW WEAKENING AND PULLING NORTHWEST
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. FRONTAL PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING ALL NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAS
BEEN MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES IN KETCHIKAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY
IS DEPICTING A SOMEWHAT RAGGED LAYER OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
PANHANDLE AND EXTENDING OUT INTO THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND TO THE SOUTH...OPEN CELL CUMULUS INDICATE
COLDER AND MORE UNSTABLE MID LEVEL AIR WILL SOON BE OVER THE
PANHANDLE.

 AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PULL OUT TO SEA...THE
ASSOCIATED POP WILL DIMINISH AS WELL BUT HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN STABLE BELOW ABOUT 3000 FEET DUE TO THE
THE VERY COLD NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS RESULTING FROM THE CANADIAN
OUTFLOW WINDS. ABOVE THAT LEVEL...HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MORE CONVECTIVE. BASED ON THIS AND THE RELATIVELY LOW POP VALUES
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...HAVE ELECTED TO USE CONVECTIVE
TERMINOLOGY TO DESCRIBE THE SPOTTY...ON AGAIN OFF AGAIN NATURE OF
THE PRECIP EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP OVER
ZONES 27 AND 28 LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

 AS THE LOW TRACKS OUT TO SEA AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL...HOWEVER...STILL WEAKEN
ENOUGH THAT THE PANHANDLE WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW WINDS. WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR ALL
ZONES EXCEPT HAINES AND SKAGWAY ARE SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND AND WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF HAINES NEAR LYNN CANAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE THOUGH SO THAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY REMAINS
IN PLACE PRIMARILY FOR WIND AND WIND CHILL ALONG THE KLONDIKE
HIGHWAY ALTHOUGH SKAGWAY PROPER MAY SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA RAMP UP
AGAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD.

 USED NAM FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE NORTHWEST
CANADA THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC RAPIDLY
DEEPENS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WEAKENS AS IT CURVES TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPS INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SHEARS APART OVER NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF ON SUNDAY BUT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST MID WEEK BUT MODELS
HANDLING THIS FEATURE DIFFERENTLY.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
FRIDAY AND EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME ESE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE EVENING BEFORE
EASING LATE. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE
NORTH BY FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TAKU
WINDS WITH A CRITICAL LEVEL IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND COULD
POSSIBLE EVEN SEE WARNING LEVEL WINDS IN THE DOWNTOWN AND DOUGLAS
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE TO STORM IN LYNN CANAL AND CROSS
SOUND. WITH HWW/ADSRY ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE END OF CURRENT
EVENT JUST ISSUED SPS AND CAN GO TO ADVSRY OR WATCH WITH AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO SOUTHERN ZONES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT SHOULD MIX WITH RAIN LATER IN
THE NIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. SNOW WILL
LIKELY REACH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH
FRONT SHEARING APART.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COLD IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. A COLD TROUGH ALOFT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA EARLY IN
THE WEEK WITH RE ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR REACHING NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS.

MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF LOW. GFS TENDING TO KEEP SURFACE LOW FARTHER WEST AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF WHILE THE EC TENDED TO BE FARTHER
EAST. THE NAM WAS NICE COMPROMISED AND USED FOR GRIDS THROUGH
SUNDAY. BY MID WEEK THERE IS AN IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE IN MODELS
WITH EC KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE GFS
TAKES THIS INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. USED A REALATIVLY DRY HPC
SOLUTION FOR LATER PERIODS WHICH WAS A COMPROMISE TOWARDS
ESEMBLES.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ020>022-026-029.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY FOR AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ018.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM AKST THIS MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-043-051.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-031>036-041-042-052.

&&

FRITSCH/MM

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 3, 4:51 AM AKST, 4 hours 14 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
451 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

AKZ017>029-040200-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
CAPE DECISION TO SALISBURY SOUND COASTAL AREA-
EASTERN BARANOF ISLAND AND SOUTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INNER CHANNELS FROM KUPREANOF ISLAND TO ETOLIN ISLAND-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION COASTAL AREA-
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS-MISTY FJORDS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...SITKA...PORT ALEXANDER...ANGOON...
JUNEAU...PETERSBURG...WRANGELL...KAKE...CRAIG...KLAWOCK...
KETCHIKAN...METLAKATLA...HYDER
451 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS FRIDAY...

A STRONG LOW LIFTING NORTH OT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA STARTING FRIDAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 60 MPH RANGE ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. TAKU WINDS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED
STRONGER GUSTS IN EXPOSED LOCATIONS INCLUDING DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND
SOUTH DOUGLAS.

Event by event

2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area

When
March 3, 9:05 AM AKST to March 4, 4:58 AM AKST
Where
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area forecast zone
Measured
80 kt (92 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
Other Federal Agency

Haenke Island recorded hourly wind speed averages 40 to 65 MPH on 3/4 and 3/5.

High Wind, Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island

When
March 4, 9:00 AM AKST to March 5, 5:00 AM AKST
Where
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island forecast zone
Measured
56 kt (64 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Official NWS Observations

Douglas Boat harbor wind sensors observed peak winds to 56 KT on four separate occasions on the night of 3/4. Most sustained winds were in the 40s and 50s. No damage was reported on this Taku wind event.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2011

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 282423, 281591.