Alaska, 2011

Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, January 3 to 4, 2011

January 3 to 4, 2011 · NWS AFC · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A strong low in Bristol Bay produce wind and snow resulting in blizzard conditions in the Kuskokwim Delta. This same storm also produce strong wind through Portage Pass.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

A strong low in Bristol Bay produce wind and snow resulting in blizzard conditions in the Kuskokwim Delta. This same storm also produce strong wind through Portage Pass.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 4:00 PM AKST, 9 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 2, 4:00 PM AKST, 9 hours 50 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN JAN 2 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS IN REGARDS TO HOW THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL SPLIT BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS THEN ARE MOSTLY TOGETHER WITH THESE TWO LOWS AFTER THAT.
MODELS DO SPLIT ON THEIR SOLUTION FOR A LARGE LOW IN THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA AROUND THURSDAY. THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE THREE WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN
CONTINUES TODAY WITH THE LARGEST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH POLE
THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA. A STRONG 250 MB JET STREAM RUNS JUST
SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH AND REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOWS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A LARGE COMPLEX LOW OVER THE BERING SEA
REGION. THERE ARE FOUR SEPARATE LOW CENTERS IN THIS LOW COMPLEX WITH
THE LARGEST BEING IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND.
A STRENGTHENING LOW IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS IN THE FAVORABLE
DEVELOPMENT AREA ALONG THE JET STREAM.
THERE IS A WEATHER FRONT BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF
ALASKA THAT WILL REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST LATER TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE A BARRIER JET TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST THAT WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN COOK INLET BECOMES STRONGER FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THE WINDS OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME DOWN THE
INLET RESULTING IN THE WINDS IN ANCHORAGE TO GO NORTHEAST AND
DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AROUND THE ANCHORAGE AREA AS THIS
OCCURS THIS EVENING.
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA SHOULD SEE ANY PRECIPITATION REMAIN ALL
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS IN EASTERN BRISTOL BAY MAY SEE A SWITCH
BACK TO RAIN MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES SOME WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION.
THE REST OF THE BERING SEA SHOULD REMAIN IN SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLD
SECTOR OF THE COMPLEX LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THERE WILL BE A SLOW CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL AND
SHOULD BECOME MORE SEASONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA/SOUTHWEST ALASKA BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WILL SHIFT THE STORM TRACK TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING SEA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...GALE 120 125 130 150 155 165 170 171 172 179 180 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 179 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JAN 11

Event by event

1 high wind, 1 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns

When
January 3, 1:50 AM AKST to 6:00 PM AKST
Where
Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns forecast zone
Measured
65 kt (75 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
AWOS

Wind gust are estimated based upon the Portage AWOS and pressure gradients across the region.

Blizzard, Kuskokwim Delta

When
January 3, 1:20 PM AKST to January 4, 1:00 AM AKST
Where
Kuskokwim Delta forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Blizzard
Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2011

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 266793, 266792.