Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, April 16, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
810 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE REGION...

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH IT HAS REMAINED VERY QUIET ACROSS THE CWA
THUS FAR TODAY...IT HAS BEEN ANYTHING BUT OFF TO TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST...WHERE NUMEROUS LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MS AND AL. THESE
POWERFUL SUPERCELLS HAVE ALREADY BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR UPWARDS OF 50
REPORTS OF CONFIRMED TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGE DONE BY THESE
TORNADOES...ALL ACROSS A RELATIVELY SMALL PORTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ADDITIONALLY...LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT
LINE WIND DAMAGE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THESE AREAS...SO ALL
EYES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE STORMS.

WHILE SOME WEAKENING OF THIS VERY IMPRESSIVE ARRAY OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED BEFORE REACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA AFTER
SUNSET...THE THREAT FOR CONTINUED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WHICH WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT EASTERN DAYLIGHT
TIME. THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME MORE LINEAR IN NATURE...WITH A POSSIBLE
SQUALL LINE FORMING TO THE WEST OF THE CHATTAHOOCHEE AND
APALACHICOLA RIVERS. THIS POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MARCH EASTWARD THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
BY THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS ALONG SOME SEGMENTS OF THE LINE.
ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER
SITUATION AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNING DURING THE
COMING HOURS.

OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD REACH AT LEAST CAUTIONARY
LEVELS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. STRONG W-NW WINDS MAY COME VERY CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON
SATURDAY...SO THIS POSSIBILITY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVING NEAR MOB
AT 01Z WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND NEAR DHN/ECP BY 06Z...ABY/TLH BY
09Z AND SPREAD EAST OF VLD BY 15Z. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT TERMINALS...BUT OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AFTER THE
CONVECTION CLEARS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UP TO 25KTS DURING THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE WALTON...BAY...AND GULF
     COUNTY BEACHES TONIGHT THROUGH SAT.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GADSDEN...INLAND FRANKLIN...
     INLAND GULF...INLAND JEFFERSON...INLAND WAKULLA...LEON...
     LIBERTY...MADISON.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALHOUN...CENTRAL WALTON...
     HOLMES...INLAND BAY...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...GOULD
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GODSEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
315 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770-775-161000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT-BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN-SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM  SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
315 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2011 /215 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR FLORIDA BIG BEND...EASTERN
PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE STRONG JET STREAM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
SURGING NORTHWARD WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL...APPEARS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING PAST MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...SEVERE STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE AS WELL AS SOUTH GEORGIA.

THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORMS SHOULD END BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY.

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS SHOULD
CONSIDERED THEMSELVES ACTIVATED AT THE FIRST ISSUANCE OF A WATCH
THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

CAMP/GODSEY