Hail in Wisconsin, June 6, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN UPPER LOW
OVER WEST CENTRAL QUEBEC CANADA...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THIS FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. EMBEDDED
VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...COMBINED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER TONIGHT. SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOME WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
REGION...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
INTO THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA TODAY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHIFTING INTO THE AREA...WITH WEAK MEAN LAYER CAPES OF UP TO
150 J/KG WITH MODIFIED AIR PARCEL AND LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. THUS...LEFT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR TODAY LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
THE LAKE...BRINGING COOLER HIGHS THERE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY BRING PATCHY FOG TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...SO
LEFT IN FORECAST.

SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE FIELDS SEEN SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AIR COLUMN GETTING
MOIST BY TUESDAY ON THE NAM...WITH THE GFS QUICKER TO BRING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

LIKE THE NAM/ECMWF TIMING MORE THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS
THEY HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE IF THE NAM VERIFIES.

WENT WITH LIKELY POPS TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS
SHOWING MODEST LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE SHIFTING
THROUGH. WENT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER...AS LITTLE
INSTABILITY IS SEEN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LINGERED LOWER POPS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE
FIELDS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK...WHICH BRINGS GULF MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE AREA. KEPT THIS PERIOD MAINLY UNCHANGED FOR NOW...UNTIL MORE
AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IS ATTAINED.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW LINGERING IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
NEAR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING AS CU DEVELOPS. BROKEN CIGS 4 THSD
FT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST WITH
MINIMAL CAPE AROUND 100 TO 150 J/KG MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND LOW BROUGHT SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF MILWAUKEE...BUT WINDS BECAME
NORTHWEST SO WAVES SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE. AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST BY
EVENING WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...06/HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-070845-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
338 AM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-070845-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
338 AM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE ARE MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND AGAIN LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BRISK SOUTH WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON FRIDAY.

HENTZ

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX