Lightning Strikes in Wisconsin, April 6, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
320 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

.SYNOPSIS...UPR FLOW ACRS THE CONUS WL BE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE
START OF THE FCST PERIOD AS STG UPR TROF SHIFTS EWD ACRS THE AREA.
PROGRESSION LIKELY TO SLOW DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FCST
PERIOD...AS UPR TROF REFORMS BACK OUT NEAR THE WEST COAST...AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL OR ERN CONUS.

SIG PCPN EXPECTED EARLY...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACRS THE SERN
1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. THEN DRY WX SHOULD RETURN...WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO ABV NORMAL LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TNGT AND WED. PCPN CHCS CONT TO BE THE MAIN FCST
CHALLENGE OVR THE NXT 24 HRS AS A NEARLY STNRY WARMFNT TO OUR
SOUTH WAFFLES NORTH AND THEN BACK SOUTH. MAIN CONVECTIVE SHOW
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VCNTY OF THE FNTL BNDRY...THUS SVR WEATHER
THREAT FOR ANY PART OF NE WI APRS MINIMAL.

THE 19Z MSAS SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRES SITUATED
OVR SW IA WITH THE WRMFNT EXTENDED EWD THRU EXTREME NRN IL. TEMPS
SOUTH OF THE FNT HAVE SOARED INTO THE 80S...WHILE AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE FNT REMAIN STUCK IN THE 50S. HI PRES WAS LOCATED OVR
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE...THUS A NE WND FLOW WAS COMMONPLACE OVR THE
UPR MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LKS. THE RADAR MOSIAC SHOWED A LRG AREA
OF MAINLY SHWRS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS OVR SRN MN AND THE NRN
HALF OF WI. A NEW BAND OF TSTMS WERE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVR THE
CNTRL PLAINS ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY LINE.

EXPECT TO SEE SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRES MOV ALONG THE WRMFNT
ACROSS NRN IL TNGT. THIS FNT MAY ACTUALLY GET PULLED A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH LTR NGT AS CONVECTION/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DVLP. STILL
ANTICIPATING A COUPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHWRS/SCT TSTMS TO TAKE
PLACE OVR THE SRN HALF OF WI THIS EVENING AS STG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COMBINES WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE RGN OF THE UPR JET. DO
NOT EXPECT SVR WEATHER THIS EVENING AS BEST INSTABILITY/MSTR TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG THE WRMFNT. AS THE FNT CHANGES DIRECTION AND HEADS A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH...LOOK FOR PCPN TO DIMINISH OVR CNTRL/E-CNTRL WI
AS THE BAROCLINIC ZN/WAA DROPS SOUTH AS WELL. AS FOR THE NORTH...
WL NEED TO CARRY SOME EVENING CHC POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
PICTURES...BUT AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF. DRY CONDITIONS OVRNGT IN
THE NORTH AND MAY NEED TO LWR TEMPS A BIT.

ONE LAST SFC WAVE TO MOV ALONG THE FNT FROM MO INTO IL ON WED
WHICH WL TRY TO SEND ANOTHER SURGE OF PCPN INTO WI. STILL APRS
THAT THE SRN HALF OF WI WOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE QPF...BUT HIGHER
AMTS WL AGAIN BE SITUATED OVR SRN WI/NRN IL CLOSER TO THE NOW
CDFNT. AS THE MAIN SHRTWV TROF APPROACHES THE WRN GREAT LKS WED
AFTERNOON...COOLER AIR ALOFT WL ARRIVE AND SEND 8H TEMPS DOWN TO
AROUND -4C OVR THE NORTH. THEREFORE...EVEN THO THE NORTH TO NOW BE
DRY ON WED WITH SOME MIXED SUNSHINE...TEMPS WL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...WED NGT THROUGH NEXT TUE. STARTING TO GET CONCERNED
ABOUT THE WX FOR WED NGT. NAM AND CANADIAN BOTH SHOWED SHRTWV
COMING OUT OF THE WRN TROF PHASING WITH THE NRN STREAM AND
BRINGING RATHER VIGOROUS LOOKING SFC CYCLONE NNEWD INTO WESTERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. SHARPENING UPR TROF OVERHEAD...LIFT IN UPR
DEFORMATION ZONE...AND INCRG NLY FLOW AT LOW-LEVELS ALL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WHILE FAIRLY SIG PCPN IS STILL
FALLING. THE ECMWF AND SREF...HOWEVER...WERE STILL QUICKER TO END
PCPN. THAT WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CHC FOR MORE THAN A FEW FLAKES OF
SNOW MIXED IN BEFORE PCPN ENDS. UPR TROF STILL VERY IMPRESSIVE
LOOKING ON WV STLT IMAGERY...SO CAN/T RULE OUT STRONGER
NAM/CANADIAN SOLNS. ALWAYS HAVE TO BE CAREFUL IN SITNS LIKE THIS
AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL QUICKLY BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS FREQUENTLY
DON/T COOL AS FAST...SO THE CHANGEOVER MAY NOT OCCUR AS FAST AS
SHOWN BY NAM/CANADIAN EVEN IF THEY ARE CORRECT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LARGER SCALE WX SYSTEM. INCREASED POPS FOR WED EVENING TO
LIKELY OVER THE E...AND WAS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN GETTING SNOW
TO MIX WITH THE RAIN. BUT DON/T WANT TO GO BEYOND THAT WITH SIG
DIFFERENCES STILL AMONG THE MODELS.

UPR TROF STILL SWINGING ACRS THE AREA THU SUGGESTED KEEPING CHC
POPS AND SOME PCPN GOING. THEN QUIETER WX SHOULD RETURN. TEMPS WL
STILL BE COOL...BUT SHOULD WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY BACK TO ABV NORMAL
DURING THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHC OF RAIN LOOKS A LITTLE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE THAN IT DID YDA...SO PUSHED PCPN CHCS BACK ABOUT 24 HRS.
&&

.AVIATION...A WIDE RANGE OF CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHWRS/SCT TSTMS MOV E-NE ACROSS WI
MAINLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT MORE IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS OVR THE GRB/ATW TAF SITES...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVR THE
CWA/AUW TAF SITES AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THE RHI TAF SITE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KALLAS/SKOWRONSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
355 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071145-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
355 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MERRILL TO WAUSAUKEE. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARSHFIELD TO STURGEON BAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT AND OCCURRENCES OF HAIL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN GREEN BAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-071145-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
355 PM CDT TUE APR 6 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...AND THE STRONGEST
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTH OF STURGEON BAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

INCREASING NORTH WINDS COULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JS/AK