Dust Devil in Wisconsin, April 11, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
355 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2010

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE
MILD AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY...AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME
RAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVD THROUGH GRB CWA YDAY WAS SITUATED ACROSS
CNTRL IL AND THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. MSAS
ANALYSIS AND SFC OBS ALSO SHOWED A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVG INTO FAR
NORTHERN WI. A S/W TROF MOVG ALONG THE NORTHERN MN BORDER WAS
PRODUCING SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT THESE WERE POISED TO STAY
NORTH OF WI. A RIDGE OF PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS
THE STATE...ACCOMPANIED BY DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.

EXPECT SUNNY SKIES TODAY...WITH VERY DEEP MIXING TO 750-700 MB
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY COMMON CHARACTERISTIC OF A
SPRINGTIME PACIFIC AIR MASS. THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DEEP
MIXING SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S THROUGHOUT THE CWA...
EXPECT NEAR LK MICH...WHERE A LK BREEZE WILL DEVELOP. AVERAGE
MIXING RATIOS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE AS LOW AS 1.5 TO 2
G/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SUPPORTS DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS
IN THE SANDY SOIL REGIONS...AND AROUND 10 F IN THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL POSE A FIRE WEATHER THREAT...AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
DROPS INTO THE TEENS. THE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST CRITICAL
OVER N WI...WHERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST...AND WINDS MAY
GUST TO 15 MPH DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A PASSING S/W TROF.

TONIGHT...EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...
WITH MIN TEMPS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THIS MORNING'S
READINGS.

ON MONDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
PCPN...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NORTHWARD SURGE OF A H8 WARM
FRONT AND MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE...HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON...KEPT NORTHERN WI DRY UNTIL EVG...AND BACKED OFF A
BIT ON MODEL QPF FCSTS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE HIGHEST
POPS (50 PERCENT) WILL BE IN CNTRL WI...WHERE SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO SUPPORT ISOLD THUNDER LATE IN THE DAY. HAVE
USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE...WITH SOME TWEAKING TO LOWER
TEMPS WHERE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
850MB WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB JET
CRANKS UP MONDAY NIGHT WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MODELS INDICATED
850MB LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 C/KM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BOTH THE GFS/WRF INDICATED 700/500MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
OVER THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTH.

ON TUESDAY...BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY PUSH THE
FRONT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAT WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED ON THIS
RUN. LATEST MODEL RUNS TONIGHT WOULD ALSO INDICATE TEMPERATURES
BARELY REACHING 50 ON TUESDAY. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY 00Z THE
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH KEPT HIGHS IN THE 40S ALL DAY. LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY...AND MAY NOT HAVE GONE
FAR ENOUGH IF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE. WITH THE BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTH AND WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...MODELS
DID DEPICT RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300MB JET MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THIS FEATURE COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING AWAY FROM
THE STATE...THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BOUNDARY
WILL GET. THE GFS SPLITS THE FORECAST AREA IN HALF WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING IN THE COOL SECTOR WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD GET REALLY MILD. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWED THE FAR
NORTHEAST STAYING REALLY COOL. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE RECENT MODEL INDICATIONS
THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY NOT REACH THAT AREA. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST FOR POPS/WEATHER AND MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
GFS BRINGING THE FRONT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF WOULD
SUGGEST CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WOULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KIECKBUSCH/ECKBERG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
411 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2010

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-120915-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
411 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-120915-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
411 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

TSK/RE