Hail and Damaging Wind in West Virginia, May 14, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT LIES FROM KCLE TO KCVG AROUND 17Z. THUNDERSTORMS
BREAKING OUT ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST
VIRGINIA BY MID AFTERNOON. LARGE AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE FOR
CONVECTION TO WORK ON EAST OF OHIO RIVER...COMBINED WITH H7-H5 WINDS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS...AND WET BULB ZERO AROUND 10K FT. POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FRONT STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS DRIER AIRMASS
OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEPT SATURDAY NIGHT DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER AND CALM FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY...PUSHING A
WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH ACROSS OUR CWA. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SPREADING FROM THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. TRIPLE POINT OF LOW SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE CWA LATE MONDAY SPREADING CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS WITH POSSIBLE
HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE SREF AND THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE
NAM/GFS LOOK SLOWER/WEAKER WITH THE FRONTS AND QPF FIELDS ATTM.
CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING EAST EARLY TUESDAY.
THE ADOPTED SOLUTION IS FASTER THAN HPC TIMING WITH THE FRONTS.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST UP TO 0.50 INCHES OF QPF THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN...A WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO OVER 2 INCHES OF QPF IS FORECASTED BY
HPC THRU WED 12Z. THIS WOULD LEAD TO SOME WATER CONCERNS. KEPT
WORDING IN RWS.

USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW AND THE ECMWF
FOR LOW TEMPS...AND CLOSER TO THE GMOS FOR HIGHS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST WAS CONSTRUCTED USING A COMBINATION OF THE ECMWF
AND GFS MODELS...BUT LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.  IN THE
INITIAL STAGES OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS WAS STILL PUSHING THE SURFACE
LOW TOO FAST AND TOO FAR NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF
PRECIPITATION ALIGNED WELL WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OUT IN FRONT OF THE COLD FRONT.
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS IN EASTERN OHIO AND TRAVELS THROUGH
WV. NOTE THAT WATER PROBLEMS MAY BECOME A PROBLEM IN THIS PERIOD IF
THE RAIN DOES CONTINUE FOR DAYS ON END.  MORE DETAILS ON POTENTIAL
RAIN PROBLEMS WILL BE DECIDED AS THE PERIOD BECOMES MORE OF A SHORT
TERM FORECAST.  AFTER THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION OVER KENTUCKY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY EAST OF OHIO RIVER.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS. DRIER WEATHER OVERSPREADS
THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JKF/ARJ/JEM
NEAR TERM...JKF
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JEM
AVIATION...JKF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-150715-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM STORMS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.