High Wind in Texas, May 2 to 3, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED NEAR
CNM WHERE THEY MAY APPROACH 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

DISCUSSION...
BACKSIDE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT DESTRUCTIVE WEATHER TO
EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SECONDARY LOBE
SWINGING ACROSS ON MONDAY.  UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN BY MIDWEEK WILL
BRING WARMEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR.

FREEZE WARNING FOR DAVIS MOUNTAINS/MARFA PLATEAU WILL EXPIRE AT 9AM.
WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY AS
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. HAVE
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH TONIGHT. DO NOT BELIEVE RAIN
CHANCES LOOK THAT PROMISING BUT WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN WILL
LEAVE THEM IN.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY AS 850 TEMPS WARM.  850MB
READINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER ON MONDAY BUT THEN DRAMATIC INCREASE ON
TUESDAY WITH 850 TEMPS JUMPING UP TO 25C/77F BASED ON ETA.  GFS
SHOWS 850 TEMPS PUSHING 30C/87F WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK.

MONDAY IS THE DIFFICULT DAY IN TEMP FORECAST AS GUIDANCE DIVERGES...
MAV WARMS WHILE MET COOLS.  ETA 850 TEMPS DEFINITELY COOLER WITH
CLOUDS STAYING IN THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MAV CLEAR.  SO EXPECT CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE SECRET TO THE HIGHS MONDAY... HAVE GONE TOWARD THE
WARM SIDE.

A REINFORCING PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
UPPER LOW BUT COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED.  LEFT IN LOW POPS IN
MONDAY FOR THE NORTH BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN WILL
FALL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS POOR.  90S RETURN BY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN.  HIGHS CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY.... WITH 100S ALONG PECOS AND RIO GRAND VALLEYS.
QUITE A CHANGE CONSIDERING UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FELL YESTERDAY IN
THE HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

A POLAR FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
COOL NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY BECOMING UPSLOPE
EAST LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.  LOOK FOR COOLER
TEMPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY THIS MORNING WILL REMAIN FAIR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A DRIER AIR-MASS IN PLACE OVER WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO MID TO UPPER 70S...MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT AREA-WIDE. IN ADDITION...THE 20
FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE
NM...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE VAN
HORN CORRIDOR. THESE LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. VERY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY...AS
MAX TEMPS WILL EXCEED 90F FOR MANY LOCATIONS. VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR WED AND AREA-WIDE SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES WILL
BE LIKELY THEN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER...BUT MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY THURSDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
     EDDY COUNTY.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 9 PM CDT /8
     PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...LOVING...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
     VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...MARFA PLATEAU.

&&

78

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
406 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-030915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
406 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /306 AM MDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...RESULTING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A KILLING FREEZE. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE MARFA PLATEAU AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL
OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TODAY. WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...STRONG WEST WINDS...AND HIGH FIRE DANGER
SHOULD RESULT IN CONDITIONS FAVORING RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY OF THE
YEAR...BY FAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND