Hail in Texas, May 12 to 13, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH
SOME ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
GOLDTHWAITE TO MINERAL WELLS TO BOWIE. WHILE THIS PRECIP AREA HAS
BEEN PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT HAVE KEPT THE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. LARGE
SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING S/W TROF WILL BEGIN TO WANE
AFTER DARK AS STRONG CAPPING REBUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
INHIBITING DEEPER CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY ACROSS NW OK/SOUTHERN KS WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ALONG IT. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL ACTUALLY SLOW DOWN WITH CURRENT THINKING
THAT IT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. IF IT MOVES
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THEN FLOW
WOULD BECOME NORTHERLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FOR NOW...EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING WHEN FRONT GETS CLOSER. WILL INDICATE VCTS THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AMENDMENTS TO
TIMING AND WINDS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

91/DUNN

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW
CRITERIA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER AS BEST LIFT MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010/
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS AND HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES BELOW THE 90 DEGREE MARK ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. THE
DRYLINE HAS STAYED WELL TO THE WEST AND CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
INITIATE ALONG IT FROM NORTHEAST OF SWEETWATER TO LAWTON...TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST IF NOT ALL THE
CONVECTION OUT OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...BUT SCATTERED ELEVATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 5 AND 9 PM WHERE A STORM COULD
BECOME SURFACE BASED.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM NE KANSAS TO NEAR AMARILLO. DO NOT THINK THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TOO MUCH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10
HOURS...AS IT SHOULD TAKE THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH TO
GET A REAL PUSH SOUTH.

COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL
PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. IF STORM
COVERAGE IS HIGH...THE FRONT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO REACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...IF STORMS ARE NOT AS
ROBUST AND NOT UNIFORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE FROPA WILL BE
AROUND LATE MORNING. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS
BEEN ADVERTISING THE FASTER SOLUTION AND THIS IS LIKELY ATTRIBUTED
TO ITS FINER RESOLUTION AND BETTER HANDLING OF SHALLOW AIR MASSES.
ONE MAJOR FACTOR AGAINST A QUICK MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT IS THE FLOW AT
500MB WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 50 KNOTS. FOR A TYPICAL MCS
SURGE...UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT WILL STALL MORE THAN LIKELY NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX
AND THEN MEANDER AROUND NORTH TEXAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY IN COMBINATION WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL EPISODES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CARRY LIKELY/CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY/MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY...AND
WILL BRING THE SUN BACK TO THE REGION.

REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TOMORROW. SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IF STORMS
WERE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR FROM THE DRYLINE AND BECAME SURFACE
BASED. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
TOMORROW...BUT SEVERE CHANCES DIMINISH FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES DECREASE.

85/NH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  74  81  68  82  68 /  20  40  60  60  30
WACO, TX              73  86  68  85  68 /  20  20  40  50  20
PARIS, TX             71  83  65  79  65 /  20  30  50  60  40
DENTON, TX            71  80  64  80  66 /  30  50  60  60  40
MCKINNEY, TX          72  83  65  79  65 /  20  40  60  60  40
DALLAS, TX            73  84  68  81  68 /  20  30  60  60  30
TERRELL, TX           74  87  67  82  64 /  20  30  50  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         72  85  67  83  66 /  10  20  40  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            72  85  68  83  67 /  20  20  30  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     68  79  64  78  64 /  30  50  60  60  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
902 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
902 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE EVENING IN THIS SAME AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE MAINLY ON THURSDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS LOOKS TO INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
841 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

TXZ102-103-118-130215-
WISE TX-DENTON TX-TARRANT TX-
841 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  DENTON COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN TARRANT COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY

AT 840 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HASLET...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. IN
ADDITION...SEVERAL STRONG...SMALL STORMS WERE ALSO IN THE VICINITY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ARGYLE...AURORA...AZLE...
BARTONVILLE...BOYD...COPPER CANYON...CORINTH...CORRAL CITY...CROSS
ROADS...DENTON...EAGLE MOUNTAIN...HASLET...JUSTIN...KRUM...LAKE
WORTH...LAKESIDE...NORTHLAKE...PECAN ACRES...PELICAN BAY...ROANOKE...
SAGINAW...SHADY SHORES AND WHITE SETTLEMENT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PEA-SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3322 9695 3269 9753 3273 9755 3300 9754
      3300 9768 3304 9770 3343 9736 3343 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 218DEG 33KT 3299 9734

82/JLD